Mathematical Football Prediction: A Bettor’s Honest Guide
I’ve been betting on football for over a decade, and the single biggest shift in how I pick matches happened the day I stopped trusting my gut and started running the numbers. Mathematical football prediction isn’t magic. It’s just discipline plus data: expected goals, recent form, schedule congestion, lineup news. When you stack those properly, you spot value the casual bettor misses.
This guide is built around what actually works for me on a Saturday afternoon across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. No fluff, no 100%-guaranteed nonsense.
World Cup 2026 — Match Predictions
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain – Argentina 1–0World Cup · Final · 19/07 19:00 | 1✓ 40% @2.45 | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 50% @1.42 | GG | +2.5 |
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew II – Philadelphia Union II 2–0MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 00:00 | 1✓ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✗ 63% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| Coquimbo Unido – O'HigginsCopa De La Liga · Chile · 19/07 00:00 · 🌧 13° | 136% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG57% | +2.553% |
| Chicago Red Stars W – Angel City W 0–2NWSL Women · USA · 19/07 00:30 · ☀ 27° | 1 | X | 2✓ 49% | +1.5✓ 72% | GG | +2.5 |
| Oriental – Sportivo Huracan 1–0Segunda División · Uruguay · 19/07 00:30 | 1✓ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 61% | GG | +2.5 |
| Detroit City – Indy Eleven 2–0USL Championship · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✓ 60% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 65% | GG | +2.5 |
| Loudoun United – Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–1USL Championship · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 54% | +1.5✓ 72% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sporting JAX – Brooklyn 2–2USL Championship · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✓ 79% | +2.5✓ 81% |
| Charlotte Independence – Chattanooga Red Wolves 2–4USL League One · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 62% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 58% | +2.5✓ 63% |
| NY Cosmos – Corpus Christi 0–0USL League One · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 81% | GG✗ 60% | +2.5✗ 59% |
| Richmond Kickers – Spokane Velocity 0–2USL League One · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 51% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 58% | GG | +2.5 |
| Union Omaha – Westchester SC 2–2USL League One · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 70% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 76% | GG | +2.5✓ 52% |
| Chattanooga – Orlando City II 1–1MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✗ 64% |
| Houston Dynamo FC II – Colorado Rapids II 2–1MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✓ 81% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG | +2.5✓ 65% |
| St. Louis City II – Portland Timbers II 1–2MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 80% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 58% |
| Millonarios – Colo Colo 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 01:00 | 1✗ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 71% | GG | +2.5 |
| Charleston Battery – Sacramento Republic 1–1USL Championship · USA · 19/07 01:30 | 1✗ 64% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 77% | GG | +2.5✗ 53% |
| Rhode Island – Hartford Athletic 1–0USL Championship · USA · 19/07 01:30 | 1✓ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 62% | GG | +2.5 |
| Fort Wayne – Greenville Triumph 3–0USL League One · USA · 19/07 01:30 | 1✓ 63% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| One Knoxville – Alta 2–3USL League One · USA · 19/07 01:30 | 1✗ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Cusco – Alianza Atletico 4–1Primera División · Peru · 19/07 01:30 · ☀ 12° | 1✓ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Racing Louisville W – Houston Dash W 1–1NWSL Women · USA · 19/07 02:00 · ☁ 25° | 1✗ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 77% | GG✓ 56% | +2.5✗ 53% |
| The Town – North Texas 0–1MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 02:00 | 1✗ 65% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 82% | GG✗ 55% | +2.5✗ 61% |
| Huntsville City – Atlanta United II 2–0MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 02:00 | 1✓ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✗ 74% | +2.5✗ 75% |
| Barcelona SC – Libertad 1–0Liga Pro · Ecuador · 19/07 02:00 | 1✓ 56% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Fort Lauderdale United – The Villages 3–0USL League Two · USA · 19/07 02:00 | 1✓ 56% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 69% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| FC Tulsa – El Paso Locomotive 1–0USL Championship · USA · 19/07 02:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 41% | +1.5✗ 72% | GG✗ 51% | +2.5 |
| Aurora – Oriente Petrolero 2–2Primera División · Bolivia · 19/07 02:30 · ⛅ 15° | 1✗ 65% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 52% | +2.5✓ 59% |
| Peoria – Minneapolis City 4–0USL League Two · USA · 19/07 02:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 56% | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✗ 72% | +2.5✓ 75% |
| Utah Royals W – Orlando Pride W 1–0NWSL Women · USA · 19/07 02:45 | 1✓ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 73% | GG✗ 52% | +2.5 |
| San Antonio – Las Vegas Lights 1–2USL Championship · USA · 19/07 03:00 | 1✗ 55% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 62% |
| Carlos A. Mannucci – Deportivo Llacuabamba 1–0Segunda División · Peru · 19/07 03:00 · ☁ 23° | 1✓ 46% | X | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Laredo Heat – GFI 6–1USL League Two · USA · 19/07 03:00 | 1✓ 51% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 88% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✓ 71% |
| Ventura County – Los Angeles FC II 2–0MLS Next Pro · USA · 19/07 04:00 · ☀ 27° | 1✓ 55% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 92% | GG✗ 75% | +2.5✗ 79% |
| Phoenix Rising – Monterey Bay 3–2USL Championship · USA · 19/07 04:30 | 1✓ 56% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✓ 53% | +2.5✓ 54% |
| Hamilton Olympic – Belmont SwanseaNorthern NSW NPL · Australia · 19/07 05:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| South Cardiff – Wallsend Red DevilsNNSW League 1 · Australia · 19/07 05:00 | 1 | X | 264% | +1.580% | GG52% | +2.558% |
| Blacktown City U20 – St. George City U20 1–0Npl Nsw U20 · Australia · 19/07 05:00 | 1✓ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 94% | GG✗ 79% | +2.5✗ 82% |
| Marconi S. U20 – Sydney Utd U20 4–0Npl Nsw U20 · Australia · 19/07 05:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 46% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 72% | +2.5✓ 73% |
| Western United II – Bulleen Lions 2–4Victoria NPL 2 · Australia · 19/07 06:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 41% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 72% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Robina City – Redlands United 1–1Queensland Premier League · Australia · 19/07 06:30 | 1✗ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✓ 61% | +2.5✗ 62% |
| Ulverstone – Glenorchy Knights 0–2Tasmania NPL · Australia · 19/07 06:30 · ☁ 11° | 1 | X | 2✓ 54% | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✗ 76% | +2.5✗ 80% |
| South East Utd. – Launceston United 4–1Tasmania NPL · Australia · 19/07 06:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 44% | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✓ 64% |
| Marconi Stallions – Sydney United 0–1New South Wales NPL · Australia · 19/07 07:00 | 1✗ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 71% | GG | +2.5 |
| Blacktown City – St George City FA 3–0New South Wales NPL · Australia · 19/07 07:00 · ⛅ 16° | 1✓ 38% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 70% | GG | +2.5 |
| Central Coast II – Northern Tigers 1–2New South Wales NPL 2 · Australia · 19/07 07:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 50% | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 67% | +2.5✓ 68% |
| New Lambton – Toronto Awaba StagsNNSW League 1 · Australia · 19/07 07:00 | 158% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG62% | +2.565% |
| Dudley Redhead United – Newcastle Croatia FCNNSW League 1 · Australia · 19/07 07:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Charlestown City Blues – Edgeworth EaglesNorthern NSW NPL · Australia · 19/07 07:00 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.590% | GG73% | +2.575% |
| Olympic – Brisbane Roar II 3–1Queensland NPL · Australia · 19/07 08:00 | 1✓ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✓ 65% |
| Capalaba – Holland Park Hawks 3–0Queensland Premier League · Australia · 19/07 08:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 58% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 68% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Avispa Fukuoka – Osaka 3–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 09:00 | 1✓ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✓ 72% | +2.5✓ 74% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos – Roasso Kumamoto 3–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 10:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 54% | +1.5✓ 52% | GG | +2.5 |
| FK Beograd – Adelaide United II 0–2South Australia NPL · Australia · 19/07 10:30 | 1✗ 55% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✗ 64% | +2.5✗ 66% |
| Kluczevia Stargard – Warta Gorzów 3–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 11:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 40% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✗ 63% | +2.5✓ 61% |
| Rochdale – Al-Rayyan SC 3–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 11:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 39% | +1.5✓ 80% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 58% |
| Levadia U19 – Tartu Kalev 0–5Esiliiga B · Estonia · 19/07 11:30 | 1✗ 53% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✗ 80% | +2.5✓ 84% |
| Narva U21 – Parnu JK Vaprus U21 4–1Esiliiga B · Estonia · 19/07 11:30 | 1✓ 65% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✓ 80% | +2.5✓ 88% |
| Calcutta Customs – Bhawanipore 1–2Calcutta Premier Division · India · 19/07 11:30 | 1✗ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| George Telegraph – Kidderpore 1–1Calcutta Premier Division · India · 19/07 11:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 67% | +1.5✓ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Mohun Bagan – Kalighat 3–0Calcutta Premier Division · India · 19/07 11:30 | 1✓ 82% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 50% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Patha Chakra – Bidhannagar 1–0Calcutta Premier Division · India · 19/07 11:30 | 1✓ 53% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 98% | GG✗ 88% | +2.5✗ 92% |
| Riga FC II – Super Nova 2 2–11. Liga · Latvia · 19/07 12:00 | 1✓ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 87% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✓ 69% |
| Tondela – Nacional 1–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 12:00 | 1✗ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 74% | GG✓ 53% | +2.5 |
| Benfica – Universidade de MacauPrimeira Divisão · Macao · 19/07 12:00 | 163% | X | 2 | +1.596% | GG80% | +2.587% |
| FC Anyang – Gwangju FC 1–1K League 1 · South-Korea · 19/07 12:30 | 1✗ 63% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 78% | GG | +2.5✗ 54% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 – FC Seoul 1–3K League 1 · South-Korea · 19/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 48% | +1.5✓ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Cheongju – Cheonan City 1–0K League 2 · South-Korea · 19/07 12:30 · ⛅ 25° | 1 | X | 2✗ 49% | +1.5✗ 84% | GG✗ 63% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| Gyeongnam FC – Ansan Greeners 5–0K League 2 · South-Korea · 19/07 12:30 · ☁ 26° | 1✓ 37% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 79% | GG✗ 59% | +2.5✓ 57% |
| Suwon Bluewings – Paju Citizen 0–0K League 2 · South-Korea · 19/07 12:30 | 1✗ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 69% | GG | +2.5 |
| Yongin City – Hwaseong 0–3K League 2 · South-Korea · 19/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 37% | +1.5✓ 74% | GG✗ 54% | +2.5 |
| IFK Norrkoping – Sandviken 3–0Superettan · Sweden · 19/07 13:00 | 1✓ 50% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 75% | GG✗ 53% | +2.5✓ 51% |
| Dalian Yingbo B – Xi'an Ronghai 1–2League Two · China · 19/07 13:00 · ☀ 24° | 1 | X✗ 35% | 2 | +1.5✓ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tai'an Tiankuang – Qingdao Red Lions 1–0League Two · China · 19/07 13:00 | 1 | X✗ 36% | 2 | +1.5✗ 55% | GG | +2.5 |
| VIFK W – PK-35 Vantaa WKansallinen Liiga · Finland · 19/07 13:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.567% |
| Tauras – FA Šiauliai II 3–11 Lyga · Lithuania · 19/07 13:00 | 1✓ 80% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG | +2.5✓ 65% |
| Naestved – FC Helsingor 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 13:00 | 1✗ 38% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 61% | +2.5✓ 59% |
| Langfang Glory City – Chengdu Rongcheng II 0–0League Two · China · 19/07 13:30 · ☁ 27° | 1✗ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 55% | GG | +2.5 |
| Jiangxi Liansheng – Guangdong Mingtu 0–0League Two · China · 19/07 13:30 | 1✗ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 71% | GG✗ 50% | +2.5 |
| Nantong Haimen Codion – Rizhao Yuqi 0–0League Two · China · 19/07 13:30 | 1✗ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Wuhan Three Towns II – Guizhou Zhucheng 0–1League Two · China · 19/07 13:30 · ☁ 29° | 1 | X✗ 41% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Altay – Aktobe 2–4Premier League · Kazakhstan · 19/07 14:00 · ☀ 24° | 1✗ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 58% | GG | +2.5 |
| Erzgebirge Aue – FC Schalke 04 2–4Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 1✗ 65% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 57% | +2.5✓ 64% |
| Dornbirn – SCR AltachFriendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 157% | X | 2 | +1.599% | GG91% | +2.595% |
| Shakhter Soligorsk – Neman 1–2Coppa · Belarus · 19/07 14:00 | 1✗ 60% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 67% |
| Hessen Kassel – Lippstadt 08 4–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 1✓ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 80% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 58% |
| FC Krasnodar – Baltika 1–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 45% | +1.5✓ 88% | GG✓ 70% | +2.5✗ 71% |
| Borussia Hildesheim – Hemelingen 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 1✓ 89% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 97% | GG✓ 62% | +2.5✓ 89% |
| Ural – Enisey 3–0First League · Russia · 19/07 14:00 · ⛈ 20° | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 75% | GG✗ 54% | +2.5✓ 51% |
| Sardarapat – Ararat 1–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 1 | X✓ 43% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Werder Bremen II – BFC Preussen 0–5Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:00 | 1✗ 73% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✗ 69% | +2.5✓ 81% |
| Chiba – Gorilla of the UniversePrimeira Divisão · Macao · 19/07 14:00 | 151% | X | 2 | +1.597% | GG86% | +2.590% |
| Thimphu City – Thimphu 2–0Premier League · Bhutan · 19/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 77% | GG✗ 56% | +2.5✗ 53% |
| Kamuzu Barracks – Blue Eagles 2–1Super League · Malawi · 19/07 14:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 59% | +1.5✓ 77% | GG✓ 50% | +2.5✓ 53% |
| Dedza Dynamos – Chitipa United 1–2Super League · Malawi · 19/07 14:30 | 1✗ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| Ekhaya – Nyasa Big Bullets 0–0Super League · Malawi · 19/07 14:30 | 1✗ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 70% | GG | +2.5 |
| Silver Strikers – Karonga United 4–1Super League · Malawi · 19/07 14:30 | 1✓ 72% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✓ 50% | +2.5✓ 62% |
| Balingen – VfB Stuttgart 0–7Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:30 | 1✗ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✗ 80% | +2.5✓ 83% |
| Bremer SV – Heeslinger SC 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 14:30 | 1✗ 59% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 80% | GG✗ 55% | +2.5✗ 58% |
| United Nordic – Orebro SK 2–0Superettan · Sweden · 19/07 15:00 | 1✓ 48% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✗ 62% | +2.5✗ 62% |
| IFK Varnamo – Ljungskile SK 2–3Superettan · Sweden · 19/07 15:00 | 1✗ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 68% | GG | +2.5 |
| HJK W – HPS WKansallinen Liiga · Finland · 19/07 15:00 | 167% | X | 2 | +1.578% | GG | +2.554% |
| Concórdia U20 – Barra SC U20 0–3Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 50% | +1.5✓ 80% | GG✗ 58% | +2.5✓ 58% |
| Corinthians U20 – Ponte Preta U20 7–1Paulista – U20 · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1✓ 37% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 69% | GG | +2.5 |
| Flamengo SP U20 – Palmeiras U20 1–1Paulista – U20 · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 52% | +1.5✓ 54% | GG | +2.5 |
| Volna – Slavia Mozyr 0–5Coppa · Belarus · 19/07 15:00 · ☁ 27° | 1✗ 72% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 61% | +2.5✓ 73% |
| Ringmahon Rangers – BohemiansFAI Cup · Ireland · 19/07 15:00 | 152% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG54% | +2.553% |
| Sao Joao del Rei U20 – Inter de Minas U20 1–0Mineiro U20 · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1✓ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 80% | GG✗ 59% | +2.5✗ 58% |
| Central Espanol – Cerro LargoPrimera División – Apertura · Uruguay · 19/07 15:00 | 146% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| KAMAZ – Nizhny Novgorod 1–2First League · Russia · 19/07 15:00 · 🌧 22° | 1 | X | 2✓ 74% | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✓ 75% | +2.5✓ 88% |
| Atlético Mineiro U20 – Cruzeiro U20 0–0Mineiro U20 · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1✗ 78% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 90% | GG✗ 58% | +2.5✗ 75% |
| Independente SP – Sporting Paulinense 2–1Paulista Série B · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1✓ 82% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG | +2.5✓ 68% |
| José Bonifácio – America SP 2–4Paulista Série B · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1✗ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| SSV Ulm 1846 – Bayern München II 3–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 15:00 | 1✓ 64% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✓ 73% | +2.5✓ 80% |
| Atlético Tembetary – SOL DE America 1–1Division Intermedia · Paraguay · 19/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 38% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✗ 61% |
| Encarnación – 3 de Noviembre 2–1Division Intermedia · Paraguay · 19/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 38% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 61% |
| Dynamos – Simba Bhora 0–0Premier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 19/07 15:00 · ☀ 23° | 1✗ 55% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Hardrock – Triangle United 1–2Premier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 19/07 15:00 | 1✗ 65% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 73% | GG | +2.5 |
| Highlanders – Scotland Mabvuku 1–0Premier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 19/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 47% | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| ARUC U20 – Capital TO U20 0–13Brasiliense U20 · Brazil · 19/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 62% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 66% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Orsha – Naftan 2–2Coppa · Belarus · 19/07 15:30 · ☁ 22° | 1✗ 87% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 97% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✓ 91% |
| Tacuarembo – Plaza ColoniaSegunda División · Uruguay · 19/07 15:30 | 1 | X37% | 2 | +1.552% | GG | +2.5 |
| CAP – Democrata SL 1–4Mineiro – 2 · Brazil · 19/07 15:30 · ☀ 23° | 1 | X | 2✓ 50% | +1.5✓ 69% | GG | +2.5 |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar – KA Akureyri 2–2Úrvalsdeild · Iceland · 19/07 16:00 | 1✗ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✓ 73% | +2.5✓ 74% |
| Kuressaare – Kalju Nomme 0–0Meistriliiga · Estonia · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 54% | +1.5✗ 70% | GG | +2.5 |
| FC Levadia Tallinn – TammekaMeistriliiga · Estonia · 19/07 16:00 | 166% | X | 2 | +1.583% | GG55% | +2.562% |
| Ogre United – BFC Daugavpils 0–4Virsliga · Latvia · 19/07 16:00 · ☁ 22° | 1✗ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✗ 64% | +2.5✓ 62% |
| Smiltene – Rēzekne FA 1–01. Liga · Latvia · 19/07 16:00 | 1✓ 59% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 87% | GG✗ 65% | +2.5✗ 70% |
| Criciuma U20 – Chapecoense U20 2–1Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 19/07 16:00 | 1✓ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 76% | GG✓ 55% | +2.5✓ 52% |
| Joinville U20 – Avaí U20 2–1Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 70% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Tubarao – Hercílio Luz 0–2Catarinense – 2 · Brazil · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 36% | +1.5✓ 72% | GG✗ 52% | +2.5 |
| Viktoriya Maryina Horka – Belshina 1–8Coppa · Belarus · 19/07 16:00 | 1✗ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 70% | GG | +2.5 |
| Cracovia Krakow – Sevilla 1–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:00 | 1✓ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 75% | GG✗ 53% | +2.5✗ 51% |
| Sporting Hasselt – Antwerp 0–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 40% | +1.5✓ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Eintracht Norderstedt – Havelse 1–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:00 | 1✗ 81% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✓ 71% | +2.5✗ 88% |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl – Leningradets 2–0First League · Russia · 19/07 16:00 · ☀ 26° | 1✓ 58% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 91% | GG✗ 72% | +2.5✗ 77% |
| Tekstilshchik – FC UFA 2–2First League · Russia · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 64% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Veles – Chelyabinsk 1–0First League · Russia · 19/07 16:00 · ☀ 25° | 1 | X | 2✗ 62% | +1.5✗ 82% | GG✗ 56% | +2.5✗ 61% |
| Brasil DE Pelotas – GramadenseCopa Gaúcha · Brazil · 19/07 16:00 · 🌧 19° | 142% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG50% | +2.5 |
| HNK Gorica – FC St. Pauli 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 64% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| AFC Eskilstuna – Assyriska FF 3–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:00 | 1✓ 72% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 55% | +2.5✓ 67% |
| Ennepetal – Westfalia Rhynern 1–5Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 46% | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✓ 56% | +2.5✓ 54% |
| IF Elfsborg – Sirius 1–3Allsvenskan · Sweden · 19/07 16:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 48% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 61% | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Halmstad – BK Hacken 0–2Allsvenskan · Sweden · 19/07 16:30 · ⛅ 19° | 1 | X | 2✓ 49% | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✗ 60% | +2.5✗ 59% |
| Hammarby FF – Degerfors IF 4–0Allsvenskan · Sweden · 19/07 16:30 · ☁ 17° | 1✓ 64% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✗ 54% | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Kayserispor – KasımpaşaFriendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 16:30 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| Ordabasy – Yelimay Semey 3–1Premier League · Kazakhstan · 19/07 17:00 | 1✓ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 75% | GG✓ 55% | +2.5✓ 51% |
| NFK Minsk – Dinamo Brest 0–5Coppa · Belarus · 19/07 17:00 | 1✗ 72% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 61% | +2.5✓ 73% |
| Derry City – Tolka Rovers 3–0FAI Cup · Ireland · 19/07 17:00 · ☀ 17° | 1 | X | 2✗ 52% | +1.5✓ 87% | GG✗ 68% | +2.5✓ 70% |
| Kauno Žalgiris II – Babrungas 0–21 Lyga · Lithuania · 19/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 64% | +1.5✓ 59% | GG | +2.5 |
| Buchonia Flieden – Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1–7Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 17:00 | 1✗ 57% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 62% |
| Widzew Łódź – Puszcza Niepołomice 2–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 17:00 | 1✓ 62% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✗ 61% | +2.5✗ 67% |
| FC Sochi – Spartak Kostroma 0–2First League · Russia · 19/07 17:00 · ⛅ 25° | 1 | X | 2✓ 59% | +1.5✓ 91% | GG✗ 71% | +2.5✗ 76% |
| FF Jaro – Inter Turku 0–0Veikkausliiga · Finland · 19/07 17:30 · ☁ 13° | 1 | X | 2✗ 47% | +1.5✗ 82% | GG✗ 62% | +2.5✗ 61% |
| Torpedo Moskva – Volga Ulyanovsk 3–1First League · Russia · 19/07 17:30 | 1✓ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 74% | GG✓ 53% | +2.5 |
| Džiugas Telšiai – Banga 1–0A Lyga · Lithuania · 19/07 17:45 · ⛅ 18° | 1 | X | 2✗ 36% | +1.5✗ 62% | GG | +2.5 |
| Academia Cantolao – Deportiva Agropecuaria 0–0Segunda División · Peru · 19/07 17:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 42% | +1.5✗ 71% | GG✗ 50% | +2.5 |
| KR Reykjavik – Stjarnan 5–0Úrvalsdeild · Iceland · 19/07 18:00 | 1✓ 55% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✗ 82% | +2.5✓ 87% |
| Antofagasta – Rangers de TalcaPrimera B · Chile · 19/07 18:00 · ☀ 20° | 162% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Magallanes – Curico UnidoPrimera B · Chile · 19/07 18:00 | 147% | X | 2 | +1.587% | GG68% | +2.569% |
| Laagri – Paide 5–2Meistriliiga · Estonia · 19/07 18:00 · 🌦 19° | 1 | X | 2✗ 40% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 61% |
| Auda – FK LiepajaVirsliga · Latvia · 19/07 18:00 · ☁ 22° | 159% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG57% | +2.560% |
| VPS II – SJK-juniorit 6–2Kakkonen – Lohko C · Finland · 19/07 18:00 · ⛅ 17° | 1✓ 50% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 71% | +2.5✓ 73% |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius – TransINVEST Vilnius 3–1A Lyga · Lithuania · 19/07 18:00 · ☀ 23° | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 67% | +2.5✓ 67% |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas – Sport Boys 1–0Primera División · Peru · 19/07 18:00 · ☀ 20° | 1✓ 58% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 74% | GG | +2.5 |
| Ekranas – BFA 1–41 Lyga · Lithuania · 19/07 18:00 | 1✗ 41% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 62% |
| Cerro – Racing MontevideoPrimera División – Apertura · Uruguay · 19/07 18:00 · 🌦 11° | 1 | X | 238% | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Arsenal Tula – FK Neftekhimik 0–1First League · Russia · 19/07 18:00 | 1✗ 46% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 72% | GG✗ 51% | +2.5 |
| Rio Ave – Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 18:00 | 1✗ 77% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 91% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 76% |
| Sturm Graz II – Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 19/07 18:30 | 1✗ 61% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✓ 61% | +2.5✓ 66% |
| Fenix – AtenasSegunda División · Uruguay · 19/07 18:30 | 150% | X | 2 | +1.575% | GG53% | +2.551% |
| Tecnico Universitario – Aucas 0–1Liga Pro · Ecuador · 19/07 18:45 · 🌦 14° | 1✗ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 62% | GG | +2.5 |
| Milsami Orhei – CSF Bălți 2–1Super Liga · Moldova · 19/07 19:00 | 1✓ 66% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 53% | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Petrocub – Sheriff Tiraspol 2–3Super Liga · Moldova · 19/07 19:00 · 🌧 24° | 1✗ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 66% | +2.5✓ 68% |
| Búzios – Barra Mansa 3–0Carioca C · Brazil · 19/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 41% | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Cardoso Moreira – Campos AA 4–1Carioca C · Brazil · 19/07 19:00 | 1 | X✗ 35% | 2 | +1.5✓ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| Guarani de Palhoça – Blumenau 1–1Catarinense – 2 · Brazil · 19/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 56% | +1.5✓ 70% | GG | +2.5 |
| Juventus SC – Fluminense-SC 3–0Catarinense – 2 · Brazil · 19/07 20:00 | 1✓ 37% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 74% | GG✗ 54% | +2.5 |
| Doze – Linhares 0–2Capixaba B · Brazil · 19/07 20:00 | 1✗ 51% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✗ 72% | +2.5✗ 75% |
| Bentín Tacna Heroica – Minas 2–1Segunda División · Peru · 19/07 20:00 | 1✓ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 58% | GG | +2.5 |
| Fluminense De Feira – Feira FC 2–0Baiano – 2 · Brazil · 19/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 45% | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✗ 80% | +2.5✗ 83% |
| Algeria W – Zambia W 1–1Friendlies Women · World · 19/07 20:00 | 1✗ 71% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 87% | GG✓ 59% | +2.5✗ 70% |
| Spain – Argentina 1–0World Cup · World · 19/07 21:00 | 1✓ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 81% | GG✗ 61% | +2.5✗ 59% |
| Santos – Deportivo Binacional 3–1Segunda División · Peru · 19/07 22:15 · ☀ 23° | 1✓ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| Guayaquil City FC – Manta FC 1–0Liga Pro · Ecuador · 19/07 23:45 · 🌦 28° | 1✓ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 59% | GG | +2.5 |
| Connecticut FC – New York RB II 2–1MLS Next Pro · USA · 20/07 00:00 | 1✓ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 67% | +2.5✓ 67% |
| Miramar – La LuzSegunda División · Uruguay · 20/07 00:30 | 1 | X40% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Boston Legacy W – Washington Spirit W 1–2NWSL Women · USA · 20/07 01:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 42% | +1.5✓ 73% | GG✓ 52% | +2.5 |
| Deportes Santa Cruz – San Marcos de AricaPrimera B · Chile · 20/07 01:00 · ⛅ 22° | 1 | X | 245% | +1.580% | GG59% | +2.558% |
| San Luis – Union EspanolaPrimera B · Chile · 20/07 01:00 · 🌦 10° | 160% | X | 2 | +1.581% | GG55% | +2.559% |
| Colón – PaysanduSegunda División · Uruguay · 20/07 01:00 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.573% | GG53% | +2.5 |
| Asheville City – Appalachian 4–2USL League Two · USA · 20/07 01:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 40% | +1.5✓ 63% | GG | +2.5 |
| Flint City Bucks – Steel City 2–1USL League Two · USA · 20/07 01:00 | 1✓ 50% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 77% | GG✓ 55% | +2.5✓ 53% |
| Vermont Green – Ocean City Nor'easters 4–0USL League Two · USA · 20/07 01:00 | 1✓ 62% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✗ 80% | +2.5✓ 87% |
| San Francisco City – Ventura County FusionUSL League Two · USA · 20/07 01:30 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.583% | GG64% | +2.562% |
| Sporting KC II – Minnesota United II 1–0MLS Next Pro · USA · 20/07 02:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 51% | +1.5✗ 84% | GG✗ 62% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| Alianza Lima – Sport Huancayo 2–1Primera División · Peru · 20/07 02:00 | 1✓ 76% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG | +2.5✓ 65% |
| Independiente del Valle – Emelec 6–1Liga Pro · Ecuador · 20/07 02:15 | 1✓ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Blooming – Real Tomayapo 1–0Primera División · Bolivia · 20/07 02:30 · ⛅ 22° | 1✓ 83% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 88% | GG | +2.5✗ 71% |
| Real Monarchs – Tacoma DefianceMLS Next Pro · USA · 20/07 03:30 | 150% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG64% | +2.564% |
| Ballard – Colorado StormUSL League Two · USA · 20/07 03:30 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG65% | +2.565% |
| Kalighat Club – UnitedCalcutta Premier Division · India · 20/07 11:30 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Measurers – PeerlessCalcutta Premier Division · India · 20/07 11:30 | 158% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG72% | +2.577% |
| Mohammedan – PoliceCalcutta Premier Division · India · 20/07 11:30 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| NA Suruchi Sangha – Calcutta PoliceCalcutta Premier Division · India · 20/07 11:30 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG65% | +2.564% |
| Cambridge United – BraintreeFriendlies Clubs · World · 20/07 14:00 | 151% | X | 2 | +1.592% | GG75% | +2.578% |
| Luunja – Tallinna Kalev IIEsiliiga B · Estonia · 20/07 16:00 | 164% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG78% | +2.585% |
| Jwaaya FC – Al AhedPremier League · Lebanon · 20/07 16:30 | 134% | X | 2 | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Turku PS – IlvesVeikkausliiga · Finland · 20/07 17:00 · ☁ 19° | 160% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG61% | +2.565% |
| FS Jelgava – Rīgas FSVirsliga · Latvia · 20/07 17:00 · ☁ 17° | 1 | X | 256% | +1.576% | GG51% | +2.552% |
| Transinvest 2 – Neptūną Klaipėda1 Lyga · Lithuania · 20/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 256% | +1.576% | GG51% | +2.552% |
| KPV-j – RopsYkkönen · Finland · 20/07 17:30 | 1 | X | 269% | +1.586% | GG58% | +2.568% |
| Suduva Marijampole – Hegelmann LitauenA Lyga · Lithuania · 20/07 17:45 · ☀ 18° | 161% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Mariehamn – LahtiVeikkausliiga · Finland · 20/07 18:00 · ⛅ 16° | 1 | X | 246% | +1.566% | GG | +2.5 |
| Super Nova – GrobiņaVirsliga · Latvia · 20/07 18:00 · ☁ 18° | 1 | X | 237% | +1.576% | GG56% | +2.552% |
| Tukums II – Rīgas FS II1. Liga · Latvia · 20/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 239% | +1.582% | GG62% | +2.560% |
| Molinos El Pirata – U. San MartinSegunda División · Peru · 20/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 238% | +1.579% | GG59% | +2.555% |
| Velden – Wolfsberger ACFriendlies Clubs · World · 20/07 18:00 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.587% | GG68% | +2.569% |
| Rotor Volgograd – Ska-khabarovskFirst League · Russia · 20/07 18:30 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.596% | GG84% | +2.588% |
| Kalmar FF – Malmo FFAllsvenskan · Sweden · 20/07 19:00 · 🌦 15° | 148% | X | 2 | +1.570% | GG | +2.5 |
| Orgryte IS – Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan · Sweden · 20/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 251% | +1.590% | GG72% | +2.575% |
| Norrby IF – GIF SundsvallSuperettan · Sweden · 20/07 19:00 | 147% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Buenos Aires City – Everton La PlataTorneo Promocional Amateur · Argentina · 20/07 19:00 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Barrancas UMET – EzeizaTorneo Promocional Amateur · Argentina · 20/07 19:30 | 1 | X41% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Acassuso – San TelmoPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 · ☁ 13° | 1 | X38% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Chacarita Juniors – Club Atlético GüemesPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 · ☁ 13° | 154% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Defensores De Belgrano – Los AndesPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 · ☁ 13° | 1 | X | 244% | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| San Martin S.J. – Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 · ⛅ 15° | 1 | X39% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Atletico Atlas – SacachispasPrimera C · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 237% | +1.561% | GG | +2.5 |
| Berazategui – Central CordobaPrimera C · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Deportivo Paraguayo – Central BallesterPrimera C · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.554% | GG | +2.5 |
| Estrella Del Sur – LujanPrimera C · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 | 1 | X35% | 2 | +1.557% | GG | +2.5 |
| Centro Español – Leones de RosarioPrimera C · Argentina · 20/07 20:00 | 137% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Al Ansar – Al NejmehPremier League · Lebanon · 20/07 20:30 · ⛅ 27° | 144% | X | 2 | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| Mushuc Runa SC – Orense SCLiga Pro · Ecuador · 20/07 21:00 · 🌦 18° | 141% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Keflavik – IA AkranesÚrvalsdeild · Iceland · 20/07 21:15 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG63% | +2.561% |
| FH hafnarfjordur – BreidablikÚrvalsdeild · Iceland · 20/07 21:15 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.586% | GG68% | +2.568% |
| HK Kopavogur – Vestri1. Deild · Iceland · 20/07 21:15 | 160% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG53% | +2.557% |
| Sporting CP – StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs · World · 20/07 21:15 | 172% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG61% | +2.573% |
| Atletico Torque – DanubioPrimera División – Apertura · Uruguay · 20/07 22:00 · 🌦 12° | 149% | X | 2 | +1.581% | GG60% | +2.559% |
| Tacuary – Deportivo CapiataDivision Intermedia · Paraguay · 20/07 22:00 | 138% | X | 2 | +1.573% | GG53% | +2.5 |
| Volta Redonda – São Gonçalo EC RJCopa Rio · Brazil · 21/07 00:00 | 1 | X | 256% | +1.578% | GG53% | +2.554% |
| Deportivo Santani – Fernando De La MoraDivision Intermedia · Paraguay · 21/07 00:30 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Patronato – AtlantaPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 01:00 | 1 | X36% | 2 | +1.555% | GG | +2.5 |
| Quilmes – Gimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 01:00 · ☁ 11° | 152% | X | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
| Defensor Sporting – Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División – Apertura · Uruguay · 21/07 01:00 | 1 | X34% | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
| Chaco For Ever – San MiguelPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 02:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Central Norte – Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 02:30 | 1 | X33% | 2 | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| FC Tokyo – Nagoya GrampusFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 06:00 | 153% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG82% | +2.586% |
| Henan Jianye – Dalian ZhixingFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.582% | GG63% | +2.561% |
| Shanghai Shenhua – Qingdao JonoonFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 242% | +1.592% | GG76% | +2.578% |
| Yunnan Yukun – Chengdu Better CityFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.598% | GG89% | +2.593% |
| Dalian Kewei – Beijing GuoanFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG51% | +2.5 |
| Rizhao Yuqi – Shaanxi UnionFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| SHANGHAI SIPG – Sichuan JiuniuFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| Wuhan Three Towns – Shandong LunengFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 274% | +1.593% | GG68% | +2.581% |
| Tsirang – DrukpaPremier League · Bhutan · 21/07 11:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.590% | GG73% | +2.574% |
| Coal India – AryanCalcutta Premier Division · India · 21/07 11:30 | 162% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG51% | +2.555% |
| Jeju United FC – Gangwon FCK League 1 · South-Korea · 21/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 242% | +1.552% | GG | +2.5 |
| Jeonbuk Motors – Daejeon CitizenK League 1 · South-Korea · 21/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.579% | GG59% | +2.557% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC – Incheon UnitedK League 1 · South-Korea · 21/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 242% | +1.578% | GG57% | +2.554% |
| Sheffield Utd – HuddersfieldFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 13:00 | 170% | X | 2 | +1.583% | GG52% | +2.562% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long – Qingdao Youth IslandFA Cup · China · 21/07 13:35 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.582% | GG63% | +2.561% |
| Auxerre – ChateaurouxFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 170% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG76% | +2.586% |
| QPR – WycombeFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 254% | +1.589% | GG69% | +2.572% |
| FC Viktoria Köln – VVV VenloFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 154% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG76% | +2.580% |
| Livyi Bereh – Obolon'-BrovarFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 160% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Czarni Połaniec – Maccabi Bnei RainaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 238% | +1.581% | GG61% | +2.559% |
| Busko-Zdroj – Nea SalamisFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 250% | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| Mamer – Green BoysFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 279% | +1.595% | GG69% | +2.586% |
| Chelsea U21 – Cardiff City U21Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 252% | +1.573% | GG | +2.5 |
| Herentals – Manica DiamondsPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 21/07 15:00 | 161% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tadamon Sour – RacingPremier League · Lebanon · 21/07 15:00 | 159% | X | 2 | +1.566% | GG | +2.5 |
| Fremad Amager – SundbyFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.580% | GG59% | +2.558% |
| Buxoro – BunyodkorSuper League · Uzbekistan · 21/07 17:00 | 137% | X | 2 | +1.561% | GG | +2.5 |
| Pakhtakor – XorazmSuper League · Uzbekistan · 21/07 17:00 | 147% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sogdiana – NeftchiSuper League · Uzbekistan · 21/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 256% | +1.585% | GG63% | +2.565% |
| RED Star FC 93 – OrleansFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 17:00 | 138% | X | 2 | +1.566% | GG | +2.5 |
| Hertha BSC – Mamelodi SundownsFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 267% | +1.594% | GG74% | +2.583% |
| Cruz Azul U21 – Puebla U21Liga MX U21 · Mexico · 21/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Toluca U21 – UNAM Pumas U21Liga MX U21 · Mexico · 21/07 17:00 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Vålerenga U19 – Brann U19Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Norway · 21/07 17:30 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.597% | GG86% | +2.589% |
| KäPa – Klubi-04Ykkösliiga · Finland · 21/07 18:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG52% | +2.5 |
| Hegelmann II – Žalgiris II1 Lyga · Lithuania · 21/07 18:00 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.578% | GG57% | +2.554% |
| NK Slaven Belupo – Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 247% | +1.581% | GG60% | +2.559% |
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv – Fagiano OkayamaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:00 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Swansea – VfL BochumFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Ararat-Armenia – Shamrock RoversUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG75% | +2.576% |
| Saburtalo – Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG65% | +2.564% |
| Mjallby AIF – Lincoln Red Imps FCUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sabah FA – KuPSUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 | 148% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG59% | +2.558% |
| VfR Aalen – SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:30 | 1 | X | 278% | +1.598% | GG79% | +2.592% |
| Hørsholm-Usserød – FC NordsjaellandFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:30 | 146% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG66% | +2.566% |
| Falkenbergs FF – HelsingborgSuperettan · Sweden · 21/07 19:00 · ☁ 21° | 149% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG63% | +2.563% |
| Sollentuna – KarlbergFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 151% | X | 2 | +1.588% | GG69% | +2.571% |
| EVV – MVVFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.575% | GG54% | +2.551% |
| Großbardorf – Würzburger FVOberliga – Bayern Nord · Germany · 21/07 19:00 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG79% | +2.581% |
| Orlando Pirates – Al-Ittihad FCFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tabasalu Ulasabat – VaprusCup · Estonia · 21/07 19:00 | 163% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG58% | +2.564% |
| IFK Goteborg – FC Levadia TallinnUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 270% | +1.594% | GG73% | +2.584% |
| Espanyol – PAUFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:30 | 161% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG61% | +2.566% |
| Almagro – Gimnasia Y TiroPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 20:00 | 148% | X | 2 | +1.558% | GG | +2.5 |
| Claypole – Juventud UnidaPrimera C · Argentina · 21/07 20:00 | 134% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Athletico PR U17 – Fortaleza U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 159% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG72% | +2.577% |
| Corinthians U17 – Internacional U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 185% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG51% | +2.577% |
| Cruzeiro U17 – Vasco U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 152% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Gremio U17 – RB Bragantino U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG72% | +2.573% |
| Juventude U17 – Vitoria U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG56% | +2.553% |
| Aldershot Town – Oxford UnitedFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 159% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Forest Green – Bristol RoversFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Sport Brasil ES – TupyCapixaba B · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X35% | 2 | +1.557% | GG | +2.5 |
| Ebbsfleet United – West Ham United U21Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 237% | +1.578% | GG58% | +2.554% |
| Gillingham – MillwallFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| Hebburn Town – HartlepoolFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.596% | GG85% | +2.588% |
| Oldham – BoltonFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 252% | +1.582% | GG59% | +2.560% |
| Woking – Swindon TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 167% | X | 2 | +1.594% | GG74% | +2.583% |
| Cheshunt – Leyton OrientFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 264% | +1.582% | GG54% | +2.560% |
| Olympique Dcheïra – Amal TiznitBotola Pro · Morocco · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 239% | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| UTS Rabat – El MassiraBotola Pro · Morocco · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 237% | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| AS Jeunesse Esch – Avenir BeggenFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG78% | +2.580% |
| Torquay – PlymouthFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 259% | +1.586% | GG64% | +2.568% |
| Lancaster City – Preston North End U21Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.582% | GG62% | +2.560% |
| Longridge Town – AFC FyldeFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 285% | +1.589% | GG | +2.573% |
| Chertsey Town – WealdstoneFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG62% | +2.560% |
| Alfreton Town – RotherhamFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 265% | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| Worthing – Queens Park Rangers U21Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 249% | +1.594% | GG79% | +2.583% |
| Fleetwood Town – HuddersfieldFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 174% | X | 2 | +1.592% | GG65% | +2.578% |
| Walsall – Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.578% | GG56% | +2.554% |
| Carrick Rangers – Queen's UniversityFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG79% | +2.581% |
| Radcliffe – BarrowFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.597% | GG86% | +2.589% |
| South Shields – Harrogate TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 246% | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| H&W Welders – PortadownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 242% | +1.584% | GG64% | +2.563% |
| Prescot Cables – MarineFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.582% | GG62% | +2.560% |
| Shrewsbury – Everton U21Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.577% | GG56% | +2.553% |
| Briton Ferry – Merthyr TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 266% | +1.595% | GG78% | +2.586% |
| Redcar Athletic – Dunston UTSFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 265% | +1.589% | GG66% | +2.573% |
| AFC Telford United – CreweFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 247% | +1.590% | GG72% | +2.574% |
| AFC Hornchurch – Leyton OrientFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 254% | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Taunton Town – Weston-super-MareFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Chorley – AltrinchamFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| Dover – Deal TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 260% | +1.581% | GG55% | +2.559% |
| Gainsborough Trinity – FC Halifax TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.594% | GG79% | +2.583% |
| Stotfold – Enfield TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG79% | +2.581% |
| Alloa Athletic – FalkirkLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 279% | +1.595% | GG69% | +2.585% |
| Arbroath – MontroseLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 254% | +1.584% | GG62% | +2.563% |
| Clyde – Annan AthleticLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 162% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG51% | +2.555% |
| Dundee Utd – SpartansLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 180% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG | +2.566% |
| Dunfermline – Cove RangersLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 179% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG69% | +2.585% |
| East Fife – Linlithgow RoseLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 151% | X | 2 | +1.574% | GG51% | +2.5 |
| Inverness CT – ST JohnstoneLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG64% | +2.563% |
| Kelty Hearts – Brora RangersLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 148% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| Kilmarnock – Hamilton AcademicalLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.557% | GG | +2.5 |
| Livingston – Forfar AthleticLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 146% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG51% | +2.5 |
| Partick – StenhousemuirLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 180% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG66% | +2.584% |
| Raith Rovers – PeterheadLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG75% | +2.576% |
| Ross County – DundeeLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 258% | +1.596% | GG82% | +2.588% |
| ST Mirren – East KilbrideLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 172% | X | 2 | +1.596% | GG78% | +2.589% |
| Stranraer – Edinburgh CityLeague Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.590% | GG73% | +2.574% |
| Cliftonville FC – Warrenpoint TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 164% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG60% | +2.567% |
| Colchester – PeterboroughFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 160% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG63% | +2.567% |
| Crusaders FC – Glenavon FCFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 182% | X | 2 | +1.588% | GG | +2.571% |
| Loughgall – Dungannon SwiftsFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 242% | +1.584% | GG64% | +2.563% |
| Chester – Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.574% | GG53% | +2.5 |
| Darlington 1883 – CarlisleFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 147% | X | 2 | +1.581% | GG60% | +2.559% |
| Sutton Utd – Walton & HershamFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 255% | +1.586% | GG65% | +2.568% |
| Buxton – ScunthorpeFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 267% | +1.585% | GG57% | +2.566% |
| Oxford Sunnyside – BangorFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 247% | +1.590% | GG72% | +2.574% |
| Ashford Town (Middlesex) – Tadley CallevaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 159% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tamworth – Aston Villa U21Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 158% | X | 2 | +1.581% | GG56% | +2.559% |
| Farnham Town – WycombeFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 281% | +1.597% | GG75% | +2.591% |
| Hanworth Villa – KingstonianFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 273% | +1.598% | GG85% | +2.594% |
| KI Klaksvik – Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 20:45 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG75% | +2.576% |
| Haverfordwest County AFC – Caerau (Ely)Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 21:00 | 1 | X | 262% | +1.594% | GG77% | +2.584% |
| Larne – FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 21:00 | 152% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG54% | +2.553% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik – Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 21:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Libertad – Delfin SCLiga Pro · Ecuador · 21/07 23:30 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
*Odds correct as of date published, prices subject to change, check 1XBET for actual odds.
What Mathematical Football Prediction Actually Means
People hear “mathematical model” and picture a black box that spits out winners. The reality is more boring. A decent model takes every match a team has played, weighs the quality of their opponents, adjusts for home advantage, and then estimates a probability for each scoreline. Poisson distributions, Elo-style ratings, and xG (expected goals) are the three building blocks most public models use.
The model doesn’t care about your favourite club. That’s its main advantage. The variables that matter most in my own workflow:
- Expected goals for and against, ideally over the last 8 to 12 matches
- Goalkeeper status (a backup keeper can swing the line by 0.3 goals)
- Travel and rest days, especially in midweek European fixtures
- Referee tendencies for cards and penalty calls
- Weather, but only for under/over markets in winter rounds
None of these guarantee a win. They shift probabilities, and probabilities are all you have when you’re betting.
Spotting Must-Win Teams Today
What makes a team a “must-win”?
A must-win isn’t just the favourite. It’s a team where the situation, the form and the opponent line up. Think Bayern at home against a newly promoted side in October. Or Real Madrid hosting a mid-table La Liga club the weekend before a Champions League knockout, where the bookies still price them at short odds and the model agrees.
The four things I check before calling a side a genuine must-win:
- Form: at least 4 wins in their last 6, ideally with clean sheets
- Opposition trouble: missing a key defender, on a bad run, or just travelled across Europe
- Home record: many teams are completely different sides at home, and the gap is bigger than people think
- Motivation: title race, top-four push, or a derby that the squad won’t take lightly
How to use must-win picks without blowing your bankroll
The mistake I made for years was stacking five “must-wins” into an accumulator. One late equaliser kills the slip every single time. What works better:
Singles on the highest-confidence pick of the day. Boring, but the maths is on your side. Two-fold accas when two picks each clear 70% in the model, which gives roughly 50% combined and decent returns at the typical 1.40-1.60 acca price. Asian handicap -1 if the favourite is too short for a straight win but the model expects a comfortable scoreline. I almost never touch 4+ accumulators on must-wins. The variance eats you alive.
Daily picks, not daily nonsense
Every day at Forwins we publish the matches our model rates highest, with the probability for each market shown next to the tip. If the number is below 70% on a 1X2 pick, we don’t post it. If you only see two or three matches on a quiet Tuesday, that’s the point.
⚠️ Bet responsibly. Stake what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, stop.
Over 2.5 Predictions: What Most People Get Wrong
Over 2.5 means three or more goals in the match. Simple market, simple rule. The bit people miss is that “both teams score a lot” doesn’t automatically mean over 2.5 hits. You need pace and chance creation, not just two leaky defences.
A useful rule of thumb: if the combined xG for the fixture sits above 2.8 and neither side has parked the bus in their last five league games, over 2.5 is usually live. Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart games in 2024-25 are the textbook example. Two attacking sides, both pressing high, with combined goal totals north of 3 in most weeks.
Where it goes wrong:
- Big derbies. Tactically tight, lots of yellow cards, fewer chances than the season average suggests
- Wet pitches and December rounds in Northern Europe
- Sides that have just played a Europa or Champions League midweek game and rotated
The Draw: Underrated and Often Mispriced
Most casual bettors never touch the X. That’s exactly why there’s value in it. Draws are statistically the rarest of the three 1X2 outcomes in most leagues (around 24-28% in the top five European leagues), but when the model and the situation point to one, the typical 3.20-3.60 price is generous.
Where draws cluster:
- Teams within 2-3 points of each other in the table
- Matches between defensive sides with low xG totals (think Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad)
- End-of-season fixtures where both teams are already safe
Serie A produces more draws than any other top league, year after year. Italian football is built around defensive shape, and that shows in the scorelines. If you want to specialise in draws, start there.
Weekend Picks: Where the Real Volume Is
Saturdays and Sundays carry the bulk of the betting calendar. Premier League and La Liga slates on the same day, plus Serie A and Bundesliga, plus the smaller leagues. There’s too much football to bet on every match, and trying is the fastest way to lose a bankroll.
My weekend filter is simple. I rank every match by model confidence, throw out anything below 70%, and look for two or three plays where the bookie line and my model disagree by more than 5 percentage points. Those are the value bets. A “lock” at 1.20 with a true 90% chance is fine, but you make real money when the line is wrong, not when it’s right.
Can You Really Get 90% Accurate Predictions?
The honest version is less exciting: it holds up on safe markets across a short run of bets, and falls apart the moment you want better odds.
Over 1.5 goals in Bundesliga matches hits around 88% historically. Double chance on a heavy home favourite against a bottom-table side hits 90%+. But those are 1.10-1.25 odds. To grow a bankroll meaningfully on those, you’d need huge stakes, and a single 10% loss wipes out many wins.
Anyone selling you “90% accurate predictions” at decent odds is either cherry-picking past results or selling you a dream. The honest target for a profitable bettor is 55-58% on near-evens lines. That’s the level where compounding actually works.
Football Prediction for Tomorrow: Plan, Don’t React
The biggest edge you can get isn’t a better model. It’s earlier lines. Bookmaker odds the day before a match are softer than the same lines an hour before kick-off, because the market hasn’t adjusted to the late money yet. If your model fancies the away team and the price is 2.80 today, it’s likely closer to 2.50 by Saturday morning.
That’s why we publish next-day previews every evening at Forwins. Read them, check the team news the morning of the match, and place early when the value is still there.
BTTS Tips: When Both Teams Actually Score
BTTS is a strange market. It looks like a coin flip, but the long-term hit rate across the top leagues sits around 52-54%. The model edge is small, which means the bookmaker margin matters more here than on most markets. Always shop the line.
BTTS tends to hit in matches where:
- Both teams have scored in 4+ of their last 6 matches
- Neither side has a stand-out goalkeeper
- The favourite likes to attack rather than sit on a 1-0
Bundesliga is the BTTS league. La Liga and Ligue 1 are the worst for it, because the bottom-half teams often struggle to score at all.
Predictions for Nigerian Bettors
Nigeria has one of the most active football betting communities in Africa, and the markets popular with Nigerian bettors aren’t always the ones I’d default to. Multi-bets on weekend EPL games are everywhere. So is interest in the NPFL, where pricing is wider because fewer models cover the league.
If you bet from Nigeria, the same rules apply: stick to leagues you can actually follow, avoid huge accumulators no matter how tempting the payout looks, and shop for the best line. We cover the main European leagues plus selected NPFL fixtures.
The Short Version
A model gives you probabilities. You compare them to the bookie’s price. When your number is meaningfully higher, you bet. When it isn’t, you skip. That’s the entire job.
Everything else, including how many picks we post each day, which leagues we cover, and which markets we trust, follows from that idea. We publish daily previews for the top leagues, plus weekend round-ups every Friday. Take what’s useful, ignore what isn’t.
FAQ: Football Predictions & Betting
What are mathematical football predictions?
Mathematical football predictions are forecasts built from statistical models rather than gut feeling. They combine recent form, expected goals, head-to-head data, lineup news, and home advantage to produce a probability for each outcome. Think of it as a forecast rather than a guarantee. It gives you the likelihood of each result and a sense of how far to trust that number.
How do you predict draws in football?
Look for matches between teams of similar quality (within a few points in the table), low combined xG, and defensive styles. Serie A produces the most draws of any top European league. Atletico-style sides that prioritise structure over attacking risk are also reliable draw candidates, especially when they meet each other.
What does Over 2.5 mean in football betting?
Over 2.5 means betting that the match will end with three or more goals. Final scores of 2-1, 3-0, 3-2, 4-1 all win. A 2-0, 1-1 or 0-0 loses. It’s one of the most popular goal markets because the line cuts cleanly through the most common scorelines.
How do I find value bets?
A value bet is one where your estimated probability is higher than what the bookmaker’s odds imply. If you think a team has a 60% chance to win and the price is 1.90 (implied probability 52.6%), that’s value. Finding these consistently requires a method for estimating probability that isn’t just based on which team you like.
Are weekend predictions different from weekday ones?
The method is the same, but weekends have far more matches, so the filter has to be tighter. With 20+ games across the top leagues on a Saturday, you can afford to skip 90% of them and only bet the ones where the model edge is clear. Weekday matches often have softer lines because the market is thinner.
Can football predictions really be 90% accurate?
Only on safe markets like Over 1.5 in attacking leagues or double chance on heavy favourites, where odds are too short to grow a bankroll meaningfully. On more useful markets like 1X2 picks at 1.80-2.20, a sustainable hit rate sits in the 55-60% range. Anyone claiming 90% accuracy at decent odds is cherry-picking results.
Are your football predictions free?
Yes. All daily picks, weekend previews, and analysis on Forwins.com are free. We publish full reasoning alongside each tip so you can judge whether the logic holds, rather than just copying the bet blindly.
Do you cover Nigerian football?
We cover selected NPFL fixtures and any international matches involving Nigerian teams. The bulk of our daily output is the top European leagues, since that’s where the lines are sharpest and our data is most reliable.
What’s the best market for beginners?
Double chance (1X or X2) is the gentlest starting point. You’re covering two outcomes out of three, so the hit rate is naturally high, and it forces you to think about which outcome you’re ruling out rather than which one you’re picking. Once you’re comfortable, move to 1X2 and over/under markets.
