Mathematical Football Prediction: A Bettor’s Honest Guide
I’ve been betting on football for over a decade, and the single biggest shift in how I pick matches happened the day I stopped trusting my gut and started running the numbers. Mathematical football prediction isn’t magic. It’s just discipline plus data: expected goals, recent form, schedule congestion, lineup news. When you stack those properly, you spot value the casual bettor misses.
This guide is built around what actually works for me on a Saturday afternoon across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. No fluff, no 100%-guaranteed nonsense.
World Cup 2026 — Match Predictions
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
|---|
Odds are indicative and may change. Tap any odd to bet on Betwinner. 18+ · please gamble responsibly.
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volta Redonda – São Gonçalo EC RJ 0–0Copa Rio · Brazil · 21/07 00:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 56% | +1.5✗ 78% | GG✗ 53% | +2.5✗ 54% |
| Deportivo Santani – Fernando De La Mora 2–3Division Intermedia · Paraguay · 21/07 00:30 | 1✗ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 69% | GG | +2.5 |
| Patronato – AtlantaPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 01:00 | 1 | X36% | 2 | +1.555% | GG | +2.5 |
| Quilmes – Gimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 01:00 · 🌦 11° | 152% | X | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
| Defensor Sporting – Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División – Apertura · Uruguay · 21/07 01:00 | 1 | X34% | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
| Chaco For Ever – San MiguelPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 02:00 · ☁ 16° | 139% | X | 2 | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Central Norte – Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 02:30 · ☁ 10° | 1 | X33% | 2 | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| FC Tokyo – Nagoya Grampus 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 06:00 | 1✓ 53% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 95% | GG✓ 82% | +2.5✓ 86% |
| Henan Jianye – Dalian Zhixing 1–1FA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 40% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✗ 61% |
| Shanghai Shenhua – Qingdao Jonoon 4–1FA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 42% | +1.5✓ 92% | GG✓ 76% | +2.5✓ 78% |
| Yunnan Yukun – Chengdu Better City 3–3FA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 45% | +1.5✓ 98% | GG✓ 89% | +2.5✓ 93% |
| Dalian Kewei – Beijing Guoan 1–2FA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1✗ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 71% | GG✓ 51% | +2.5 |
| Rizhao Yuqi – Shaanxi UnionFA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| SHANGHAI SIPG – Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1FA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 · ⛈ 28° | 1 | X | 2✗ 48% | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 67% | +2.5✗ 68% |
| Wuhan Three Towns – Shandong Luneng 2–2FA Cup · China · 21/07 09:00 · 🌦 32° | 1 | X | 2✗ 74% | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✓ 68% | +2.5✓ 81% |
| Tsirang – Drukpa 2–3Premier League · Bhutan · 21/07 11:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 43% | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✓ 73% | +2.5✓ 74% |
| Coal India – Aryan 1–0Calcutta Premier Division · India · 21/07 11:30 | 1✓ 62% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 79% | GG✗ 51% | +2.5✗ 55% |
| Jeju United FC – Gangwon FC 1–1K League 1 · South-Korea · 21/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 42% | +1.5✓ 52% | GG | +2.5 |
| Jeonbuk Motors – Daejeon Citizen 0–0K League 1 · South-Korea · 21/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 40% | +1.5✗ 79% | GG✗ 59% | +2.5✗ 57% |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC – Incheon United 1–2K League 1 · South-Korea · 21/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 42% | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✓ 57% | +2.5✓ 54% |
| Sheffield Utd – Huddersfield 3–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 13:00 | 1✓ 70% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 83% | GG✓ 52% | +2.5✓ 62% |
| Bristol City – Newport County 0–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 13:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 68% | +1.5✗ 87% | GG✗ 60% | +2.5✗ 69% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long – Qingdao Youth Island 2–0FA Cup · China · 21/07 13:35 | 1 | X | 2✗ 40% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✗ 63% | +2.5✗ 61% |
| Auxerre – ChateaurouxFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 170% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG76% | +2.586% |
| QPR – Wycombe 1–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 54% | +1.5✗ 89% | GG✗ 69% | +2.5✗ 72% |
| FC Viktoria Köln – VVV Venlo 5–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1✓ 54% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✓ 76% | +2.5✓ 80% |
| Livyi Bereh – Obolon'-Brovar 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1✗ 60% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 71% | GG | +2.5 |
| Czarni Połaniec – Maccabi Bnei RainaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 238% | +1.581% | GG61% | +2.559% |
| Busko-Zdroj – Nea Salamis 0–4Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 50% | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✗ 67% | +2.5✓ 68% |
| Mamer – Green Boys 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 79% | +1.5✓ 95% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✓ 86% |
| Chelsea U21 – Cardiff City U21 0–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 52% | +1.5✗ 73% | GG | +2.5 |
| Herentals – Manica Diamonds 1–0Premier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 21/07 15:00 | 1✓ 61% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 72% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tadamon Sour – Racing 1–0Premier League · Lebanon · 21/07 15:00 | 1✓ 59% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Fremad Amager – Sundby 3–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 48% | +1.5✓ 80% | GG✓ 59% | +2.5✓ 58% |
| Buxoro – Bunyodkor 1–0Super League · Uzbekistan · 21/07 17:00 · ☀ 30° | 1✓ 37% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 61% | GG | +2.5 |
| Pakhtakor – Xorazm 2–1Super League · Uzbekistan · 21/07 17:00 · ☀ 30° | 1✓ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sogdiana – Neftchi 1–5Super League · Uzbekistan · 21/07 17:00 · ☀ 27° | 1 | X | 2✓ 56% | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 65% |
| RED Star FC 93 – Orleans 3–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 17:00 | 1✓ 38% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Hertha BSC – Mamelodi Sundowns 1–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 67% | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✓ 74% | +2.5✗ 83% |
| Cruz Azul U21 – Puebla U21 1–1Liga MX U21 · Mexico · 21/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 71% | +2.5✗ 72% |
| Toluca U21 – UNAM Pumas U21 1–1Liga MX U21 · Mexico · 21/07 17:00 | 1✗ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 80% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✗ 58% |
| Vålerenga U19 – Brann U19 1–4Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Norway · 21/07 17:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 45% | +1.5✓ 97% | GG✓ 86% | +2.5✓ 89% |
| Brabrand – VSK Århus 0–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 17:30 | 1✗ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 84% | GG✗ 64% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| KäPa – Klubi-04 0–2Ykkösliiga · Finland · 21/07 18:00 · 🌦 13° | 1✗ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 72% | GG✗ 52% | +2.5 |
| Hegelmann II – Žalgiris II 0–21 Lyga · Lithuania · 21/07 18:00 | 1✗ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✗ 57% | +2.5✗ 54% |
| NK Slaven Belupo – Shakhtar Donetsk 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 47% | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 59% |
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv – Fagiano OkayamaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:00 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Swansea – VfL Bochum 0–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 43% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✗ 71% | +2.5✗ 72% |
| Ararat-Armenia – Shamrock Rovers 2–0UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 · ☀ 27° | 1✓ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 91% | GG✗ 75% | +2.5✗ 76% |
| Saburtalo – Slovan Bratislava 0–2UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 · ⛅ 26° | 1✗ 41% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✗ 65% | +2.5✗ 64% |
| Mjallby AIF – Lincoln Red Imps FC 3–0UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 | 1✓ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 68% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sabah FA – KuPS 1–0UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 18:00 | 1✓ 48% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 80% | GG✗ 59% | +2.5✗ 58% |
| VfR Aalen – SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 78% | +1.5✓ 98% | GG✓ 79% | +2.5✓ 92% |
| Hørsholm-Usserød – FC Nordsjaelland 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 18:30 | 1✗ 46% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✓ 66% | +2.5✓ 66% |
| Falkenbergs FF – Helsingborg 2–3Superettan · Sweden · 21/07 19:00 · ☁ 21° | 1✗ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 63% |
| Sollentuna – Karlberg 1–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1✗ 51% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 88% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✓ 71% |
| EVV – MVV 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 75% | GG✓ 54% | +2.5✓ 51% |
| Großbardorf – Würzburger FV 0–2Oberliga – Bayern Nord · Germany · 21/07 19:00 | 1✗ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✗ 79% | +2.5✗ 81% |
| Orlando Pirates – Al-Ittihad FC 2–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1✗ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tabasalu Ulasabat – Vaprus 1–4Cup · Estonia · 21/07 19:00 | 1✗ 63% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 58% | +2.5✓ 64% |
| IFK Goteborg – FC Levadia Tallinn 1–2UEFA Europa Conference League · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 70% | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✓ 73% | +2.5✓ 84% |
| Gerasdorf Stammersdorf – Mistelbach 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 39% | +1.5✗ 80% | GG✗ 60% | +2.5✗ 58% |
| Espanyol – PAU 4–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 19:30 | 1✓ 61% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✗ 61% | +2.5✓ 66% |
| Almagro – Gimnasia Y TiroPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 21/07 20:00 · ☁ 13° | 148% | X | 2 | +1.558% | GG | +2.5 |
| Claypole – Juventud UnidaPrimera C · Argentina · 21/07 20:00 | 134% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Athletico PR U17 – Fortaleza U17 3–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1✓ 59% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 91% | GG✗ 72% | +2.5✓ 77% |
| Corinthians U17 – Internacional U17 4–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1✓ 85% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 91% | GG✗ 51% | +2.5✓ 77% |
| Cruzeiro U17 – Vasco U17 1–0Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1✓ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 71% | GG | +2.5 |
| Gremio U17 – RB Bragantino U17 2–4Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1✗ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 72% | +2.5✓ 73% |
| Juventude U17 – Vitoria U17 1–1Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1✗ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 77% | GG✓ 56% | +2.5✗ 53% |
| Aldershot Town – Oxford United 1–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1✗ 59% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 72% | GG | +2.5 |
| Forest Green – Bristol Rovers 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 71% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Sport Brasil ES – Tupy 5–1Capixaba B · Brazil · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X✗ 35% | 2 | +1.5✓ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| Ebbsfleet United – West Ham United U21 1–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 37% | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✓ 58% | +2.5✓ 54% |
| Gillingham – Millwall 1–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 41% | +1.5✗ 76% | GG✗ 55% | +2.5✗ 52% |
| Hebburn Town – Hartlepool 2–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 45% | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✓ 85% | +2.5✓ 88% |
| Oldham – Bolton 1–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✓ 52% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 59% | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Woking – Swindon TownFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 167% | X | 2 | +1.594% | GG74% | +2.583% |
| Cheshunt – Leyton Orient 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 64% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 54% | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Olympique Dcheïra – Amal Tiznit 1–1Botola Pro · Morocco · 21/07 20:00 · ⛅ 24° | 1 | X | 2✗ 39% | +1.5✓ 69% | GG | +2.5 |
| UTS Rabat – El Massira 3–0Botola Pro · Morocco · 21/07 20:00 · ⛅ 22° | 1 | X | 2✗ 37% | +1.5✓ 63% | GG | +2.5 |
| AS Jeunesse Esch – Avenir Beggen 4–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:00 | 1✓ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✓ 78% | +2.5✓ 80% |
| Torquay – Plymouth 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 59% | +1.5✗ 86% | GG✗ 64% | +2.5✗ 68% |
| Lancaster City – Preston North End U21 2–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 41% | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✓ 62% | +2.5✓ 60% |
| Longridge Town – AFC Fylde 0–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 85% | +1.5✓ 89% | GG | +2.5✓ 73% |
| Chertsey Town – Wealdstone 2–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✓ 43% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 82% | GG✗ 62% | +2.5✗ 60% |
| Alfreton Town – Rotherham 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 65% | +1.5✗ 63% | GG | +2.5 |
| Worthing – Queens Park Rangers U21 1–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 49% | +1.5✗ 94% | GG✗ 79% | +2.5✗ 83% |
| Fleetwood Town – Huddersfield 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✓ 74% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 92% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✓ 78% |
| Walsall – Aston Villa 0–5Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✗ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✗ 56% | +2.5✓ 54% |
| Carrick Rangers – Queen's University 3–5Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✗ 41% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 93% | GG✓ 79% | +2.5✓ 81% |
| Radcliffe – Barrow 0–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✗ 45% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 97% | GG✗ 86% | +2.5✗ 89% |
| South Shields – Harrogate Town 1–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 46% | +1.5✓ 68% | GG | +2.5 |
| H&W Welders – Portadown 0–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 42% | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✗ 64% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| Prescot Cables – Marine 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 41% | +1.5✗ 82% | GG✗ 62% | +2.5✗ 60% |
| Shrewsbury – Everton U21 1–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✗ 77% | GG✗ 56% | +2.5✗ 53% |
| Briton Ferry – Merthyr Town 3–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 66% | +1.5✓ 95% | GG✗ 78% | +2.5✓ 86% |
| Redcar Athletic – Dunston UTS 1–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✗ 65% | +1.5✗ 89% | GG✗ 66% | +2.5✗ 73% |
| Boreham Wood – Tottenham Hotspur U21 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✓ 46% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 72% | GG✓ 51% | +2.5 |
| Garforth Town – Guiseley AFC 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 2✓ 50% | +1.5✗ 75% | GG✗ 53% | +2.5✗ 51% |
| Roffey – Hastings United 2–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:30 | 1✓ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 78% | GG✗ 56% | +2.5✗ 54% |
| AFC Telford United – Crewe 0–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✓ 47% | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✗ 72% | +2.5✓ 74% |
| AFC Hornchurch – Leyton Orient 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 54% | +1.5✓ 72% | GG | +2.5 |
| Taunton Town – Weston-super-Mare 0–4Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 36% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 68% | GG | +2.5 |
| Chorley – Altrincham 0–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 48% | +1.5✗ 86% | GG✗ 67% | +2.5✗ 68% |
| Dover – Deal Town 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 60% | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 55% | +2.5✓ 59% |
| Gainsborough Trinity – FC Halifax Town 2–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 49% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✓ 79% | +2.5✓ 83% |
| Stotfold – Enfield Town 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 93% | GG✗ 79% | +2.5✗ 81% |
| Alloa Athletic – Falkirk 1–1League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☀ 20° | 1 | X | 2✗ 79% | +1.5✓ 95% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✗ 85% |
| Arbroath – Montrose 0–2League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✓ 54% | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✗ 62% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| Clyde – Annan Athletic 4–1League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☀ 19° | 1✓ 62% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 79% | GG✓ 51% | +2.5✓ 55% |
| Dundee Utd – Spartans 4–0League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 80% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 85% | GG | +2.5✓ 66% |
| Dunfermline – Cove Rangers 5–0League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☀ 19° | 1✓ 79% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 95% | GG✗ 69% | +2.5✓ 85% |
| East Fife – Linlithgow Rose 3–1League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 51% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 74% | GG✓ 51% | +2.5 |
| Inverness CT – ST Johnstone 1–0League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 42% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 84% | GG✗ 64% | +2.5✗ 63% |
| Kelty Hearts – Brora Rangers 3–2League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 48% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 67% | +2.5✓ 68% |
| Kilmarnock – Hamilton Academical 1–0League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☀ 17° | 1 | X | 2✗ 43% | +1.5✗ 57% | GG | +2.5 |
| Livingston – Forfar Athletic 8–0League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☁ 19° | 1✓ 46% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 72% | GG✗ 51% | +2.5 |
| Partick – Stenhousemuir 2–2League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☀ 20° | 1✗ 80% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 95% | GG✓ 66% | +2.5✓ 84% |
| Raith Rovers – Peterhead 1–0League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 · ☀ 19° | 1✓ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 91% | GG✗ 75% | +2.5✗ 76% |
| Ross County – Dundee 1–1League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 58% | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✓ 82% | +2.5✗ 88% |
| ST Mirren – East Kilbride 4–3League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 72% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 96% | GG✓ 78% | +2.5✓ 89% |
| Stranraer – Edinburgh City 0–2League Cup · Scotland · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 41% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✗ 73% | +2.5✗ 74% |
| Cliftonville FC – Warrenpoint Town 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 64% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 67% |
| Colchester – Peterborough 2–3Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 60% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 63% | +2.5✓ 67% |
| Crusaders FC – Glenavon FC 2–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✓ 82% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 88% | GG | +2.5✗ 71% |
| Loughgall – Dungannon Swifts 1–4Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✓ 42% | +1.5✓ 84% | GG✓ 64% | +2.5✓ 63% |
| Chester – Stoke City 0–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 74% | GG✗ 53% | +2.5 |
| Darlington 1883 – Carlisle 2–4Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 47% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 60% | +2.5✓ 59% |
| Sutton Utd – Walton & Hersham 1–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 55% | +1.5✓ 86% | GG✓ 65% | +2.5✗ 68% |
| Buxton – Scunthorpe 2–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 67% | +1.5✓ 85% | GG✗ 57% | +2.5✗ 66% |
| Oxford Sunnyside – Bangor 1–5Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✓ 47% | +1.5✓ 90% | GG✓ 72% | +2.5✓ 74% |
| Ashford Town (Middlesex) – Tadley CallevaFriendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 159% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tamworth – Aston Villa U21 1–2Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 58% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 56% | +2.5✓ 59% |
| Farnham Town – Wycombe 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 81% | +1.5✓ 97% | GG✓ 75% | +2.5✓ 91% |
| Hanworth Villa – Kingstonian 2–0Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 2✗ 73% | +1.5✓ 98% | GG✗ 85% | +2.5✗ 94% |
| KI Klaksvik – Kauno Žalgiris 0–0UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 20:45 | 1✗ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 91% | GG✗ 75% | +2.5✗ 76% |
| Haverfordwest County AFC – Caerau (Ely) 2–1Friendlies Clubs · World · 21/07 21:00 | 1 | X | 2✗ 62% | +1.5✓ 94% | GG✓ 77% | +2.5✓ 84% |
| Larne – FK Crvena Zvezda 0–4UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 21:00 · ☁ 15° | 1✗ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 77% | GG✗ 54% | +2.5✓ 53% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik – Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1UEFA Champions League · World · 21/07 21:00 | 1✓ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 67% | GG | +2.5 |
| Libertad – Delfin SC 1–0Liga Pro · Ecuador · 21/07 23:30 | 1✓ 44% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 59% | GG | +2.5 |
| Deportivo Madryn – Godoy CruzPrimera Nacional · Argentina · 22/07 00:00 · ☀ 1° | 148% | X | 2 | +1.558% | GG | +2.5 |
| Club Nacional – Tigre 0–3CONMEBOL Sudamericana · World · 22/07 00:00 · ☁ 12° | 1✗ 37% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 74% | GG✗ 54% | +2.5 |
| Atletico-MG – Bahia 1–1Serie A · Brazil · 22/07 00:30 · ☀ 19° | 1✗ 40% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 81% | GG✓ 61% | +2.5✗ 59% |
| Avai – America Mineiro 2–1Serie B · Brazil · 22/07 00:30 | 1✓ 48% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Novorizontino – Criciuma 0–1Serie B · Brazil · 22/07 00:30 · ☀ 23° | 1✗ 41% | X | 2 | +1.5✗ 70% | GG | +2.5 |
| Universidad Catolica – Barcelona SC 2–1Liga Pro · Ecuador · 22/07 02:00 · ⛅ 13° | 1✓ 52% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 69% | GG | +2.5 |
| UCV – Santos 1–4CONMEBOL Sudamericana · World · 22/07 02:30 · ☁ 21° | 1✗ 39% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 65% | GG | +2.5 |
| Vila Nova – Fortaleza EC 2–1Serie B · Brazil · 22/07 02:35 | 1✓ 54% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 66% | GG | +2.5 |
| Cruz Azul – Puebla 2–1Liga MX · Mexico · 22/07 03:00 | 1✓ 54% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 89% | GG✓ 69% | +2.5✓ 72% |
| Vissel Kobe – ImabariFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 04:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Toluca – U.N.A.M. – Pumas 1–2Liga MX · Mexico · 22/07 05:05 · ☀ 13° | 1✗ 65% | X | 2 | +1.5✓ 88% | GG✓ 64% | +2.5✓ 71% |
| AVS – ParedesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 11:30 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Chaves – AmaranteFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 11:30 | 164% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG | +2.553% |
| Nottingham Forest – BlackburnFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 12:00 · ☀ 31° | 140% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG67% | +2.566% |
| Tondela – AcademicaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 12:00 | 168% | X | 2 | +1.561% | GG | +2.5 |
| Nacional – LeganesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 12:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Bucheon FC 1995 – FC AnyangK League 1 · South-Korea · 22/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| Gwangju FC – Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1 · South-Korea · 22/07 12:30 | 1 | X | 250% | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| FC Seoul – Pohang SteelersK League 1 · South-Korea · 22/07 12:30 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Santa Clara – MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 12:30 | 156% | X | 2 | +1.592% | GG74% | +2.578% |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01 – DijonFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Feignies-Aulnoye – Seraing UnitedFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 177% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG60% | +2.577% |
| Laval – AvranchesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 170% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG76% | +2.586% |
| Dunkerque – SamsunsporFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Famalicao – AroucaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 150% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Lusitânia Lourosa – VizelaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 157% | X | 2 | +1.583% | GG60% | +2.562% |
| KSZO 1929 – BochniaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 161% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG55% | +2.560% |
| Alverca – EstorilFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Clermont Foot – Fleury 91Friendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 171% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG | +2.553% |
| Wisla Plock – Pelikan ŁowiczFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 150% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Garbarnia Kraków – NaprzódFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG63% | +2.563% |
| Unia Swarzędz – Pogoń MogilnoFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 164% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG78% | +2.585% |
| KVC Westerlo – Al-FayhaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 177% | X | 2 | +1.597% | GG77% | +2.590% |
| Willem II – Jong AZFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| Maritimo – CamachaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.577% | GG56% | +2.553% |
| Beltinci – Sharjah FCFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 156% | X | 2 | +1.588% | GG67% | +2.571% |
| Bukovyna – Ruh LvivFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 158% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG62% | +2.565% |
| TSC Backa Topola – Al-Faisaly FCFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Guimaraes – União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 14:00 | 166% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Chicken Inn – TelOnePremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 22/07 15:00 | 138% | X | 2 | +1.557% | GG | +2.5 |
| Platinum – DynamosPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 22/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.561% | GG | +2.5 |
| Scotland Mabvuku – Bulawayo ChiefsPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 22/07 15:00 | 160% | X | 2 | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Simba Bhora – MWOSPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 22/07 15:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.551% | GG | +2.5 |
| Kariba – HighlandersPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 22/07 15:00 | 1 | X41% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Bologna – 1. FC HeidenheimFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 292% | +1.598% | GG61% | +2.592% |
| Amiens – ReimsFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 16:00 | 138% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG68% | +2.568% |
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv – FC Schalke 04Friendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 16:00 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.587% | GG69% | +2.569% |
| Kokand-1912 – OlmaliqSuper League · Uzbekistan · 22/07 17:00 · ⛈ 23° | 137% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Lokomotiv – AndijanSuper League · Uzbekistan · 22/07 17:00 · ☀ 26° | 136% | X | 2 | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| Mash'al – NasafSuper League · Uzbekistan · 22/07 17:00 · ☀ 23° | 1 | X | 254% | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| Tottenham – Milton Keynes DonsFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 247% | +1.585% | GG65% | +2.565% |
| Palermo – ParadisoFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 246% | +1.578% | GG56% | +2.554% |
| JK Tabasalu – TamperCup · Estonia · 22/07 17:00 · ☁ 16° | 191% | X | 2 | +1.599% | GG69% | +2.595% |
| Mes Rafsanjan – Sanat NaftPersian Gulf Pro League · Iran · 22/07 17:00 · ⛅ 26° | 1 | X34% | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
| Jablonec II – Příbram IIFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| União Lamas – Os MarialvasFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:00 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Jaro 2 – GBKKakkonen – Lohko C · Finland · 22/07 17:30 · ☁ 13° | 154% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG81% | +2.585% |
| Guingamp – ConcarneauFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 1 | X | 259% | +1.591% | GG71% | +2.576% |
| Metz – SochauxFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 146% | X | 2 | +1.587% | GG69% | +2.570% |
| Werder Bremen – Fagiano OkayamaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 177% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG | +2.561% |
| Nantes – La Roche VFFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG74% | +2.576% |
| Hellas Verona – Virtus VeronaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 192% | X | 2 | +1.598% | GG64% | +2.593% |
| Vysoké Mýto – Pardubice IIFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 155% | X | 2 | +1.583% | GG60% | +2.562% |
| Lecce – FC Politehnica TimisoaraFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 17:30 | 1 | X | 251% | +1.574% | GG51% | +2.5 |
| PKKU – VJSYkkönen · Finland · 22/07 18:00 · 🌦 16° | 141% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Liège – St. TruidenFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG77% | +2.580% |
| Rodez – NimesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 182% | X | 2 | +1.598% | GG78% | +2.593% |
| Trans Narva – Flora IICup · Estonia · 22/07 18:00 · ☁ 14° | 191% | X | 2 | +1.599% | GG69% | +2.595% |
| Phoenix – Hell HuntCup · Estonia · 22/07 18:00 · ☁ 13° | 162% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG74% | +2.580% |
| Stade Brestois 29 – Al WakrahFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG65% | +2.564% |
| MSV Duisburg – Beerschot VAFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Montpellier – CannesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 180% | X | 2 | +1.597% | GG76% | +2.591% |
| VfL Halle – Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.Friendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 260% | +1.593% | GG76% | +2.581% |
| SSV Jeddeloh – SV RodinghausenFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.593% | GG78% | +2.580% |
| Läänemaa Haapsalu – ElvaCup · Estonia · 22/07 18:00 · ☁ 16° | 1 | X | 262% | +1.592% | GG71% | +2.578% |
| Le Mans – VersaillesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 254% | +1.584% | GG62% | +2.563% |
| Sokol Zápy – TurnovFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 157% | X | 2 | +1.599% | GG91% | +2.595% |
| Neftchi Baku – Dinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 22/07 18:00 · ⛅ 25° | 1 | X | 252% | +1.573% | GG | +2.5 |
| Kolín – Povltava FAFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.594% | GG80% | +2.583% |
| Puszcza Niepołomice – JarosławFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.590% | GG73% | +2.574% |
| RAAL La Louvière – KifisiaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 238% | +1.581% | GG61% | +2.559% |
| AZ Alkmaar – GenkFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:30 | 1 | X | 246% | +1.586% | GG68% | +2.568% |
| Brønshøj – AvartaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:30 | 137% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG62% | +2.560% |
| Wiener Viktoria – WienerbergFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 18:30 | 159% | X | 2 | +1.590% | GG70% | +2.575% |
| Bodo/Glimt – Ham-KamEliteserien · Norway · 22/07 19:00 | 172% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG53% | +2.565% |
| Lillestrom – VikingEliteserien · Norway · 22/07 19:00 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| FV Ravensburg – FC 08 HomburgFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 251% | +1.586% | GG66% | +2.567% |
| Fiorentina – GubbioFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 192% | X | 2 | +1.598% | GG64% | +2.593% |
| Wolfenbuttel – SchöningenFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 251% | +1.598% | GG88% | +2.592% |
| Heist – Patro EisdenFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.575% | GG55% | +2.551% |
| Valencia – EldenseFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| Glostrup – VanløseFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| F91 Dudelange – MamerFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 193% | X | 2 | +1.598% | GG63% | +2.594% |
| NK Osijek – HNK CibaliaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 269% | +1.593% | GG72% | +2.581% |
| Cadiz – LeicesterFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 270% | +1.580% | GG | +2.558% |
| Lüneburger SK Hansa – Hamburger SV IIFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 171% | X | 2 | +1.598% | GG85% | +2.593% |
| FSV Mainz 05 II – KreuzlingenFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 184% | X | 2 | +1.592% | GG55% | +2.579% |
| Orlando Pirates – Las PalmasFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Santa Clara – Felgueiras 1932Friendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 151% | X | 2 | +1.588% | GG69% | +2.571% |
| Excelsior Virton – US HostertFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:00 | 1 | X | 248% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.573% |
| Algeria W – Zambia WFriendlies Women · World · 22/07 19:00 | 162% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG51% | +2.555% |
| Omonia Nicosia – Kairat AlmatyUEFA Champions League · World · 22/07 19:00 · ☀ 30° | 1 | X | 252% | +1.573% | GG | +2.5 |
| Bohemians – BallkaniUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 22/07 19:00 · ☀ 19° | 138% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG59% | +2.555% |
| Hilden – UnterrathFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:30 | 1 | X | 260% | +1.593% | GG74% | +2.580% |
| Sestao River – Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:30 | 1 | X | 282% | +1.598% | GG75% | +2.592% |
| Progres Niederkorn – APM MetzFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:30 | 1 | X | 271% | +1.586% | GG57% | +2.568% |
| Atlas Delmenhorst – BersenbrückFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:30 | 171% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG75% | +2.585% |
| AS Jeunesse Esch – KoeppchenFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:30 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG78% | +2.580% |
| Levski Sofia – Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Champions League · World · 22/07 19:30 · ⛅ 18° | 144% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG82% | +2.585% |
| Echallens – BavoisFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 19:30 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| Nova Iguaçu – América RJCopa Rio · Brazil · 22/07 19:45 | 1 | X | 271% | +1.577% | GG | +2.553% |
| CFRJ / Maricá – Pérolas NegrasCopa Rio · Brazil · 22/07 19:45 | 1 | X | 281% | +1.591% | GG55% | +2.576% |
| Bangu – OlariaCopa Rio · Brazil · 22/07 19:45 | 1 | X | 249% | +1.586% | GG66% | +2.567% |
| Madureira – BonsucessoCopa Rio · Brazil · 22/07 19:45 | 1 | X | 245% | +1.585% | GG65% | +2.565% |
| Başakşehir – Inter TurkuUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 22/07 19:45 · ⛅ 24° | 136% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Joinville U20 – Criciuma U20Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 259% | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Nação U20 – Avaí U20Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 247% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Figueirense U20 – Carlos Renaux U20Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 155% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Blumenau – NaçãoCatarinense – 2 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 156% | X | 2 | +1.576% | GG51% | +2.552% |
| Fluminense-SC – TubaraoCatarinense – 2 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 239% | +1.558% | GG | +2.5 |
| Juventus SC – MetropolitanoCatarinense – 2 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG60% | +2.558% |
| Guarani de Palhoça – JaraguáCatarinense – 2 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 181% | X | 2 | +1.587% | GG | +2.569% |
| America MG U17 – Botafogo U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 176% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG51% | +2.567% |
| Bahia U17 – Palmeiras U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.588% | GG71% | +2.571% |
| Fluminense U17 – Atletico GO U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 174% | X | 2 | +1.590% | GG61% | +2.575% |
| Sao Paulo U17 – Atlético Mineiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 137% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG65% | +2.564% |
| Audax São Mateus – CTE ColatinaCapixaba B · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 | 158% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG63% | +2.567% |
| Estrela do Norte – PinheirosCapixaba B · Brazil · 22/07 20:00 · ☀ 26° | 143% | X | 2 | +1.575% | GG54% | +2.551% |
| AFC Wimbledon – NorwichFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.589% | GG71% | +2.572% |
| Eendracht Termien – KRC Genk IIFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 286% | +1.598% | GG73% | +2.592% |
| Olot – GironaFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 250% | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| KAC Kenitra – AS MansouriaBotola 2 · Morocco · 22/07 20:00 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.570% | GG | +2.5 |
| Union Sportive Boujaad – Rapide Oued ZEMBotola 2 · Morocco · 22/07 20:00 | 138% | X | 2 | +1.559% | GG | +2.5 |
| Recreativo Huelva – Real BetisFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 252% | +1.587% | GG68% | +2.570% |
| Maidenhead – WolvesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 260% | +1.587% | GG64% | +2.569% |
| Southend – NorthamptonFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:30 | 152% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG63% | +2.564% |
| Burton Albion – BirminghamFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:30 | 1 | X | 278% | +1.590% | GG58% | +2.575% |
| Queen of the South – AberdeenLeague Cup · Scotland · 22/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 265% | +1.576% | GG | +2.552% |
| Stevenage – West HamFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:45 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Eastleigh – ValenciennesFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:45 | 1 | X | 270% | +1.580% | GG | +2.558% |
| Rangers – Saint EtienneFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 20:45 | 136% | X | 2 | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Macara – Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro · Ecuador · 22/07 21:00 · 🌧 17° | 138% | X | 2 | +1.557% | GG | +2.5 |
| Flamengo RJ U17 – Santos U17Brasileiro U17 · Brazil · 22/07 21:00 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG58% | +2.555% |
| Tenerife – GetafeFriendlies Clubs · World · 22/07 21:00 | 161% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG61% | +2.566% |
| Boavista SC – CEAC / AraruamaCopa Rio · Brazil · 22/07 21:00 | 1 | X38% | 2 | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë – CeljeUEFA Champions League · World · 22/07 21:00 | 184% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG63% | +2.586% |
| Santos U20 – Vasco da Gama U20Brasileiro U20 A · Brazil · 22/07 21:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.576% | GG56% | +2.552% |
| Timon MA – AraiosesMaranhense – 2 · Brazil · 22/07 21:00 | 154% | X | 2 | +1.555% | GG | +2.5 |
| Central Córdoba SdE Res. – Platense Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 22/07 22:00 | 138% | X | 2 | +1.570% | GG | +2.5 |
| U. de Deportes W – Carlos Mannucci WLiga Women · Peru · 22/07 22:15 | 197% | X | 2 | +1.596% | GG | +2.588% |
| San Antonio – CumbayáLiga Pro Serie B · Ecuador · 22/07 22:30 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Independiente del Valle – Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro · Ecuador · 22/07 23:30 | 155% | X | 2 | +1.573% | GG | +2.5 |
| Independiente Medellin – Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · World · 23/07 00:00 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG51% | +2.5 |
| River Plate Res. – Barracas Central Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 00:00 | 154% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Lago Verde – PinheiroMaranhense – 2 · Brazil · 23/07 00:00 | 168% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG58% | +2.567% |
| Coritiba – PalmeirasSerie A · Brazil · 23/07 00:30 · ☁ 16° | 1 | X | 241% | +1.568% | GG | +2.5 |
| Carolina Core – Inter Miami IIMLS Next Pro · USA · 23/07 00:30 | 157% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG65% | +2.568% |
| Ceara – CRBSerie B · Brazil · 23/07 00:30 · ☀ 26° | 144% | X | 2 | +1.576% | GG55% | +2.552% |
| Operario-PR – Ponte PretaSerie B · Brazil · 23/07 00:30 · ☁ 15° | 160% | X | 2 | +1.573% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sampaio Corrêa RJ – ResendeCopa Rio · Brazil · 23/07 00:30 | 1 | X | 262% | +1.582% | GG56% | +2.561% |
| Lexington – Oakland RootsUSL Championship · USA · 23/07 01:00 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG68% | +2.568% |
| Portland Hearts of Pine – Union OmahaUSL League One · USA · 23/07 01:00 | 151% | X | 2 | +1.574% | GG51% | +2.5 |
| Westchester SC – NY CosmosUSL League One · USA · 23/07 01:00 · ☀ 32° | 173% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG59% | +2.572% |
| Hercílio Luz – CaravaggioCatarinense – 2 · Brazil · 23/07 01:00 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.587% | GG68% | +2.569% |
| Inter Miami – Chicago FireMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 01:30 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.590% | GG74% | +2.575% |
| FC Cincinnati – Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 01:30 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.592% | GG77% | +2.579% |
| Columbus Crew – New York City FCMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 01:30 | 141% | X | 2 | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| Philadelphia Union – New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 01:30 · ☀ 25° | 139% | X | 2 | +1.574% | GG54% | +2.5 |
| New England Revolution – Toronto FCMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 01:30 · ☁ 22° | 162% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG | +2.553% |
| Goias – Sport RecifeSerie B · Brazil · 23/07 01:30 · ☁ 25° | 1 | X | 241% | +1.557% | GG | +2.5 |
| Manta FC – LDU de QuitoLiga Pro · Ecuador · 23/07 02:00 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| Portuguesa RJ – Americano CamposCopa Rio · Brazil · 23/07 02:00 | 1 | X | 236% | +1.555% | GG | +2.5 |
| Charlotte – Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 02:15 | 160% | X | 2 | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Austin – Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 02:30 | 1 | X37% | 2 | +1.552% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sporting Kansas City – Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 02:30 | 1 | X | 239% | +1.586% | GG68% | +2.567% |
| Houston Dynamo – DC UnitedMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 02:30 | 134% | X | 2 | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Internacional – CruzeiroSerie A · Brazil · 23/07 02:30 · 🌦 15° | 150% | X | 2 | +1.573% | GG50% | +2.5 |
| Sao Paulo – Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · Brazil · 23/07 02:30 · ☁ 21° | 155% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Nautico Recife – LondrinaSerie B · Brazil · 23/07 02:30 · 🌦 24° | 140% | X | 2 | +1.566% | GG | +2.5 |
| Lanus – CiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana · World · 23/07 02:30 | 157% | X | 2 | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sporting Cristal – RB BragantinoCONMEBOL Sudamericana · World · 23/07 02:30 · ⛅ 20° | 1 | X | 254% | +1.578% | GG54% | +2.554% |
| Nashville SC – CF MontrealMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 02:30 | 171% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG69% | +2.580% |
| Chapecoense-sc – FlamengoSerie A · Brazil · 23/07 02:30 | 1 | X | 254% | +1.582% | GG60% | +2.561% |
| Colorado Springs – Miami FCUSL Championship · USA · 23/07 03:00 · ☁ 25° | 149% | X | 2 | +1.576% | GG54% | +2.552% |
| Calgary Wild W – Ottawa Rapid WNorthern Super League · Canada · 23/07 03:00 | 1 | X | 266% | +1.586% | GG59% | +2.567% |
| Spokane Velocity – Charlotte IndependenceUSL League One · USA · 23/07 03:00 | 1 | X | 238% | +1.585% | GG66% | +2.565% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II – Austin IIMLS Next Pro · USA · 23/07 03:00 | 1 | X | 257% | +1.579% | GG54% | +2.555% |
| Colorado Rapids – San DiegoMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 03:30 | 157% | X | 2 | +1.587% | GG66% | +2.570% |
| Los Angeles FC – Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 04:30 | 152% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG58% | +2.558% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy – St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 04:30 · ☀ 27° | 146% | X | 2 | +1.570% | GG | +2.5 |
| San Jose Earthquakes – Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 04:30 | 178% | X | 2 | +1.592% | GG60% | +2.578% |
| Portland Timbers – FC DallasMajor League Soccer · USA · 23/07 04:30 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.587% | GG69% | +2.569% |
| FC Liefering – Eintracht BraunschweigFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 10:30 | 143% | X | 2 | +1.590% | GG73% | +2.574% |
| Tensung – ParoPremier League · Bhutan · 23/07 11:00 | 1 | X | 286% | +1.582% | GG | +2.561% |
| Akademiya Ontustik – Astana II1. Division · Kazakhstan · 23/07 14:00 | 140% | X | 2 | +1.575% | GG55% | +2.551% |
| Jaiyq – Khan Tengri1. Division · Kazakhstan · 23/07 15:00 | 146% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG61% | +2.560% |
| Kaspij Aktau 2 – Ekibastuz1. Division · Kazakhstan · 23/07 15:00 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.573% | GG52% | +2.5 |
| Al Diriyah – FA 2000Friendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 15:00 | 182% | X | 2 | +1.589% | GG50% | +2.572% |
| Agama – HardrockPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 23/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 241% | +1.5 | GG | +2.5 |
| CAPS United – HuntersPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 23/07 15:00 | 156% | X | 2 | +1.566% | GG | +2.5 |
| Triangle United – Ngezi PlatinumPremier Soccer League · Zimbabwe · 23/07 15:00 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.551% | GG | +2.5 |
| Gazalkent – MetalourgPro League A · Uzbekistan · 23/07 16:30 | 1 | X | 250% | +1.569% | GG | +2.5 |
| Malisheva – HibernianUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 16:30 · ⛅ 22° | 179% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG62% | +2.580% |
| Toktogul – AlayPremier League · Kyrgyzstan · 23/07 16:30 | 1 | X | 250% | +1.571% | GG | +2.5 |
| New England II – New York City IIMLS Next Pro · USA · 23/07 17:00 · ☀ 24° | 1 | X | 242% | +1.581% | GG61% | +2.559% |
| Navbahor – QizilqumSuper League · Uzbekistan · 23/07 17:00 · ⛅ 24° | 141% | X | 2 | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| Surkhon – Dinamo SamarqandSuper League · Uzbekistan · 23/07 17:00 · ☀ 32° | 142% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG59% | +2.557% |
| Sampdoria – CagliariFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 17:00 | 149% | X | 2 | +1.579% | GG58% | +2.557% |
| Viimsi – Nomme Utd U19Cup · Estonia · 23/07 17:00 · ⛅ 15° | 1 | X | 276% | +1.596% | GG74% | +2.588% |
| FK Liepaja – Austria ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 17:00 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.561% | GG | +2.5 |
| Alashkert – CFR 1907 ClujUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 17:00 · ⛅ 29° | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Zorya Luhansk – GöztepeFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 17:00 | 1 | X | 254% | +1.570% | GG | +2.5 |
| Venezia – Vis PesaroFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 17:30 | 162% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG74% | +2.580% |
| TP-47 – JS HerculesKakkonen – Lohko C · Finland · 23/07 17:30 · ☀ 17° | 155% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG76% | +2.581% |
| Tallinna Kalev II – Rakvere FC FreedomCup · Estonia · 23/07 18:00 · ☁ 16° | 146% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG81% | +2.584% |
| Tartu Kalev – Kuusalu KalevCup · Estonia · 23/07 18:00 · ⛅ 17° | 153% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG82% | +2.586% |
| Bergisch Gladbach – 1. FC KölnFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 18:00 | 148% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG67% | +2.568% |
| Poseidon – Team HelmCup · Estonia · 23/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 289% | +1.599% | GG76% | +2.596% |
| HNK Gorica – Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 18:00 | 1 | X | 259% | +1.570% | GG | +2.5 |
| Debreceni VSC – Pyunik YerevanUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 18:00 · ☁ 25° | 1 | X | 252% | +1.587% | GG68% | +2.570% |
| Dila – Apollon LimassolUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 18:00 · 🌧 21° | 163% | X | 2 | +1.584% | GG58% | +2.564% |
| Paide – ZiraUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 18:00 · ☁ 17° | 149% | X | 2 | +1.591% | GG74% | +2.576% |
| Qarabag – CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League · World · 23/07 18:00 · ☀ 26° | 145% | X | 2 | +1.588% | GG70% | +2.571% |
| Estrela – NacionalFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 18:30 | 137% | X | 2 | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| Dunajska Streda – VeležUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 18:30 | 1 | X | 239% | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| Rīgas FS – VestriUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 18:30 · ☁ 17° | 159% | X | 2 | +1.572% | GG | +2.5 |
| Francs Borains – TubizeFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 18:30 | 156% | X | 2 | +1.593% | GG76% | +2.580% |
| Bayern Alzenau – Wormatia WormsFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 19:00 | 144% | X | 2 | +1.595% | GG83% | +2.586% |
| Bate Borisov – FC SionUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 19:00 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.561% | GG | +2.5 |
| Dinamo Tbilisi – FK Zalgiris VilniusUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 19:00 · 🌧 26° | 1 | X | 259% | +1.580% | GG55% | +2.558% |
| FC Santa Coloma – Rapid ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 19:00 · ☀ 29° | 160% | X | 2 | +1.586% | GG63% | +2.567% |
| Dynamo Kyiv – PAOKUEFA Europa League · World · 23/07 19:00 · 🌧 16° | 1 | X | 239% | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| Sheriff Tiraspol – Maccabi Tel AvivUEFA Europa League · World · 23/07 19:00 · ⛅ 20° | 1 | X | 239% | +1.565% | GG | +2.5 |
| FC Vaduz – Atlètic Club d'EscaldesUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 19:30 · ⛅ 20° | 1 | X | 246% | +1.578% | GG56% | +2.554% |
| Barra Mansa – BúziosCarioca C · Brazil · 23/07 19:45 | 1 | X | 257% | +1.575% | GG | +2.551% |
| Campos AA – Cardoso MoreiraCarioca C · Brazil · 23/07 19:45 | 1 | X | 243% | +1.575% | GG54% | +2.551% |
| Chapecoense U20 – Barra SC U20Catarinense U20 · Brazil · 23/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 242% | +1.588% | GG71% | +2.571% |
| GEL – DozeCapixaba B · Brazil · 23/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 240% | +1.566% | GG | +2.5 |
| Estudiantes La Plata Res – Quilmes 2Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 20:00 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.552% | GG | +2.5 |
| Independiente Riva. Res. – Independiente Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 237% | +1.578% | GG58% | +2.554% |
| Lanús Res. – Huracán Res.Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 20:00 | 142% | X | 2 | +1.582% | GG63% | +2.561% |
| Newell's Old Boys Res. – Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 20:00 | 171% | X | 2 | +1.575% | GG | +2.551% |
| Racing Club Res. – Gimnasia Mendoza 2Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 20:00 | 145% | X | 2 | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
| San Martín San Juan Res. – Atl. Rafaela 2Reserve League · Argentina · 23/07 20:00 | 1 | X | 238% | +1.582% | GG63% | +2.561% |
| Aluminij – Dinamo TiranaUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 20:00 · ⛅ 17° | 1 | X | 267% | +1.590% | GG65% | +2.574% |
| Twente – Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League · World · 23/07 20:00 · ☁ 17° | 1 | X | 246% | +1.578% | GG56% | +2.554% |
| Bravo – ShkendijaUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 20:45 · ☁ 19° | 1 | X | 270% | +1.594% | GG73% | +2.584% |
| NSI Runavik – KoperUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 20:45 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.567% | GG | +2.5 |
| Shelbourne – Kalju NommeUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 20:45 · ☁ 18° | 138% | X | 2 | +1.585% | GG66% | +2.565% |
| Cordoba – SevillaFriendlies Clubs · World · 23/07 21:00 | 139% | X | 2 | +1.552% | GG | +2.5 |
| FK Partizan – UNA StrassenUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 21:00 · ☁ 25° | 1 | X | 241% | +1.582% | GG62% | +2.560% |
| RB Bragantino U20 – Palmeiras U20Brasileiro U20 A · Brazil · 23/07 21:00 | 1 | X | 258% | +1.594% | GG77% | +2.583% |
| Stjarnan – IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League · World · 23/07 21:00 | 148% | X | 2 | +1.580% | GG59% | +2.558% |
| HNK Hajduk Split – PafosUEFA Europa League · World · 23/07 21:00 · ☀ 25° | 152% | X | 2 | +1.577% | GG54% | +2.553% |
| Leiknir R. – Throttur Reykjavik1. Deild · Iceland · 23/07 21:15 | 1 | X | 246% | +1.582% | GG61% | +2.560% |
| Ind. Juniors – CuniburoLiga Pro Serie B · Ecuador · 23/07 22:30 | 146% | X | 2 | +1.554% | GG | +2.5 |
| Leones del Norte – Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · Ecuador · 23/07 23:30 | 147% | X | 2 | +1.562% | GG | +2.5 |
| Orense SC – AucasLiga Pro · Ecuador · 23/07 23:30 | 1 | X | 235% | +1.563% | GG | +2.5 |
*Odds correct as of date published, prices subject to change, check 1XBET for actual odds.
What Mathematical Football Prediction Actually Means
People hear “mathematical model” and picture a black box that spits out winners. The reality is more boring. A decent model takes every match a team has played, weighs the quality of their opponents, adjusts for home advantage, and then estimates a probability for each scoreline. Poisson distributions, Elo-style ratings, and xG (expected goals) are the three building blocks most public models use.
The model doesn’t care about your favourite club. That’s its main advantage. The variables that matter most in my own workflow:
- Expected goals for and against, ideally over the last 8 to 12 matches
- Goalkeeper status (a backup keeper can swing the line by 0.3 goals)
- Travel and rest days, especially in midweek European fixtures
- Referee tendencies for cards and penalty calls
- Weather, but only for under/over markets in winter rounds
None of these guarantee a win. They shift probabilities, and probabilities are all you have when you’re betting.
Spotting Must-Win Teams Today
What makes a team a “must-win”?
A must-win isn’t just the favourite. It’s a team where the situation, the form and the opponent line up. Think Bayern at home against a newly promoted side in October. Or Real Madrid hosting a mid-table La Liga club the weekend before a Champions League knockout, where the bookies still price them at short odds and the model agrees.
The four things I check before calling a side a genuine must-win:
- Form: at least 4 wins in their last 6, ideally with clean sheets
- Opposition trouble: missing a key defender, on a bad run, or just travelled across Europe
- Home record: many teams are completely different sides at home, and the gap is bigger than people think
- Motivation: title race, top-four push, or a derby that the squad won’t take lightly
How to use must-win picks without blowing your bankroll
The mistake I made for years was stacking five “must-wins” into an accumulator. One late equaliser kills the slip every single time. What works better:
Singles on the highest-confidence pick of the day. Boring, but the maths is on your side. Two-fold accas when two picks each clear 70% in the model, which gives roughly 50% combined and decent returns at the typical 1.40-1.60 acca price. Asian handicap -1 if the favourite is too short for a straight win but the model expects a comfortable scoreline. I almost never touch 4+ accumulators on must-wins. The variance eats you alive.
Daily picks, not daily nonsense
Every day at Forwins we publish the matches our model rates highest, with the probability for each market shown next to the tip. If the number is below 70% on a 1X2 pick, we don’t post it. If you only see two or three matches on a quiet Tuesday, that’s the point.
⚠️ Bet responsibly. Stake what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, stop.
Over 2.5 Predictions: What Most People Get Wrong
Over 2.5 means three or more goals in the match. Simple market, simple rule. The bit people miss is that “both teams score a lot” doesn’t automatically mean over 2.5 hits. You need pace and chance creation, not just two leaky defences.
A useful rule of thumb: if the combined xG for the fixture sits above 2.8 and neither side has parked the bus in their last five league games, over 2.5 is usually live. Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart games in 2024-25 are the textbook example. Two attacking sides, both pressing high, with combined goal totals north of 3 in most weeks.
Where it goes wrong:
- Big derbies. Tactically tight, lots of yellow cards, fewer chances than the season average suggests
- Wet pitches and December rounds in Northern Europe
- Sides that have just played a Europa or Champions League midweek game and rotated
The Draw: Underrated and Often Mispriced
Most casual bettors never touch the X. That’s exactly why there’s value in it. Draws are statistically the rarest of the three 1X2 outcomes in most leagues (around 24-28% in the top five European leagues), but when the model and the situation point to one, the typical 3.20-3.60 price is generous.
Where draws cluster:
- Teams within 2-3 points of each other in the table
- Matches between defensive sides with low xG totals (think Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad)
- End-of-season fixtures where both teams are already safe
Serie A produces more draws than any other top league, year after year. Italian football is built around defensive shape, and that shows in the scorelines. If you want to specialise in draws, start there.
Weekend Picks: Where the Real Volume Is
Saturdays and Sundays carry the bulk of the betting calendar. Premier League and La Liga slates on the same day, plus Serie A and Bundesliga, plus the smaller leagues. There’s too much football to bet on every match, and trying is the fastest way to lose a bankroll.
My weekend filter is simple. I rank every match by model confidence, throw out anything below 70%, and look for two or three plays where the bookie line and my model disagree by more than 5 percentage points. Those are the value bets. A “lock” at 1.20 with a true 90% chance is fine, but you make real money when the line is wrong, not when it’s right.
Can You Really Get 90% Accurate Predictions?
The honest version is less exciting: it holds up on safe markets across a short run of bets, and falls apart the moment you want better odds.
Over 1.5 goals in Bundesliga matches hits around 88% historically. Double chance on a heavy home favourite against a bottom-table side hits 90%+. But those are 1.10-1.25 odds. To grow a bankroll meaningfully on those, you’d need huge stakes, and a single 10% loss wipes out many wins.
Anyone selling you “90% accurate predictions” at decent odds is either cherry-picking past results or selling you a dream. The honest target for a profitable bettor is 55-58% on near-evens lines. That’s the level where compounding actually works.
Football Prediction for Tomorrow: Plan, Don’t React
The biggest edge you can get isn’t a better model. It’s earlier lines. Bookmaker odds the day before a match are softer than the same lines an hour before kick-off, because the market hasn’t adjusted to the late money yet. If your model fancies the away team and the price is 2.80 today, it’s likely closer to 2.50 by Saturday morning.
That’s why we publish next-day previews every evening at Forwins. Read them, check the team news the morning of the match, and place early when the value is still there.
BTTS Tips: When Both Teams Actually Score
BTTS is a strange market. It looks like a coin flip, but the long-term hit rate across the top leagues sits around 52-54%. The model edge is small, which means the bookmaker margin matters more here than on most markets. Always shop the line.
BTTS tends to hit in matches where:
- Both teams have scored in 4+ of their last 6 matches
- Neither side has a stand-out goalkeeper
- The favourite likes to attack rather than sit on a 1-0
Bundesliga is the BTTS league. La Liga and Ligue 1 are the worst for it, because the bottom-half teams often struggle to score at all.
Predictions for Nigerian Bettors
Nigeria has one of the most active football betting communities in Africa, and the markets popular with Nigerian bettors aren’t always the ones I’d default to. Multi-bets on weekend EPL games are everywhere. So is interest in the NPFL, where pricing is wider because fewer models cover the league.
If you bet from Nigeria, the same rules apply: stick to leagues you can actually follow, avoid huge accumulators no matter how tempting the payout looks, and shop for the best line. We cover the main European leagues plus selected NPFL fixtures.
The Short Version
A model gives you probabilities. You compare them to the bookie’s price. When your number is meaningfully higher, you bet. When it isn’t, you skip. That’s the entire job.
Everything else, including how many picks we post each day, which leagues we cover, and which markets we trust, follows from that idea. We publish daily previews for the top leagues, plus weekend round-ups every Friday. Take what’s useful, ignore what isn’t.
FAQ: Football Predictions & Betting
What are mathematical football predictions?
Mathematical football predictions are forecasts built from statistical models rather than gut feeling. They combine recent form, expected goals, head-to-head data, lineup news, and home advantage to produce a probability for each outcome. Think of it as a forecast rather than a guarantee. It gives you the likelihood of each result and a sense of how far to trust that number.
How do you predict draws in football?
Look for matches between teams of similar quality (within a few points in the table), low combined xG, and defensive styles. Serie A produces the most draws of any top European league. Atletico-style sides that prioritise structure over attacking risk are also reliable draw candidates, especially when they meet each other.
What does Over 2.5 mean in football betting?
Over 2.5 means betting that the match will end with three or more goals. Final scores of 2-1, 3-0, 3-2, 4-1 all win. A 2-0, 1-1 or 0-0 loses. It’s one of the most popular goal markets because the line cuts cleanly through the most common scorelines.
How do I find value bets?
A value bet is one where your estimated probability is higher than what the bookmaker’s odds imply. If you think a team has a 60% chance to win and the price is 1.90 (implied probability 52.6%), that’s value. Finding these consistently requires a method for estimating probability that isn’t just based on which team you like.
Are weekend predictions different from weekday ones?
The method is the same, but weekends have far more matches, so the filter has to be tighter. With 20+ games across the top leagues on a Saturday, you can afford to skip 90% of them and only bet the ones where the model edge is clear. Weekday matches often have softer lines because the market is thinner.
Can football predictions really be 90% accurate?
Only on safe markets like Over 1.5 in attacking leagues or double chance on heavy favourites, where odds are too short to grow a bankroll meaningfully. On more useful markets like 1X2 picks at 1.80-2.20, a sustainable hit rate sits in the 55-60% range. Anyone claiming 90% accuracy at decent odds is cherry-picking results.
Are your football predictions free?
Yes. All daily picks, weekend previews, and analysis on Forwins.com are free. We publish full reasoning alongside each tip so you can judge whether the logic holds, rather than just copying the bet blindly.
Do you cover Nigerian football?
We cover selected NPFL fixtures and any international matches involving Nigerian teams. The bulk of our daily output is the top European leagues, since that’s where the lines are sharpest and our data is most reliable.
What’s the best market for beginners?
Double chance (1X or X2) is the gentlest starting point. You’re covering two outcomes out of three, so the hit rate is naturally high, and it forces you to think about which outcome you’re ruling out rather than which one you’re picking. Once you’re comfortable, move to 1X2 and over/under markets.
